QME-Quantitative Marketing and Economics

Consumer search in the U.S. auto industry: The role of dealership visits
Yavorsky D, Honka E and Chen K
In many markets, consumers visit stores and physically inspect products before making purchase decisions. We view the inspection of a product at a retail location as a search for product fit. We quantify the cost and benefit from searching for product fit using a discrete choice model of demand with optimal sequential search. In these models, the benefit of searching is measured by the standard deviation of the product fit and has, heretofore, been fixed to one in estimation. We show that, with an exogenous search cost shifter, both the cost benefit of searching can be separately estimated. Our empirical setting is the U.S. automotive market. We assemble a unique data set containing individual-level smartphone geolocation data that inform us about dealership visits. We also obtain information on new vehicle purchases from proprietary DMV registration data. Our exogenous cost shifter is the distance a consumer must travel to visit a dealership. Our results show that the benefit provided by dealerships to consumers is substantial. Within our empirical context, failure to estimate the standard deviation of the product fit leads to biased search cost and consumer surplus estimates and to inaccurate predictions regarding consumers' number of searches and effects of at-home test drive programs.
The impact of social distancing on box-office revenue: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic
Kim IK
In this paper, I study the short-run effect of social distancing due to the COVID-19 outbreak on movie demand and box-office revenue. Using longitudinal data on the Korean movie theater industry, I first estimate a nested logit model of movie demand, and then quantify the revenue loss in the industry. Estimation results reveal that the revenue loss due to the decrease in underlying movie demand is approximately 52 million dollars nationwide during the first five weeks after the outbreak, implying a 34 percent decrease in sales. The results also suggest an additional 42 million dollars were lost as the delay of some major movies lowered the overall quality of available movies in the market.
Complementarities between algorithmic and human decision-making: The case of antibiotic prescribing
Ribers MA and Ullrich H
Artificial Intelligence has the potential to improve human decisions in complex environments, but its effectiveness can remain limited if humans hold context-specific private information. Using the empirical example of antibiotic prescribing for urinary tract infections, we show that full automation of prescribing fails to improve on physician decisions. Instead, optimally delegating a share of decisions to physicians, where they possess private diagnostic information, effectively utilizes the complementarity between algorithmic and human decisions. Combining physician and algorithmic decisions can achieve a reduction in inefficient overprescribing of antibiotics by 20.3 percent.