The Arctic is experiencing a rapid temperature increase, four times faster than lower-latitude regions, disproportionately affecting rural, coastal, and Indigenous communities. These areas confront multiple urgent climate challenges. Adaptation strategies encompass out-migration, community relocation, and enhancing resilience, yet research in this critical area is notably limited, particularly for the most vulnerable communities. This paper presents a comprehensive review of environmental stressors and contextual factors influencing migration decisions in the North American Arctic. While migration is primarily driven by job opportunities, education, healthcare, cultural, and infrastructural factors, factors such as family, culture, safety, subsistence life, and community ties strongly influence residents to stay. The study reveals a lack of clear evidence for climate-driven migration at the individual/household level, but it underscores well-documented community-level relocations. Two major challenges in studying Arctic climate migration are identified: the complexity of migration and the uniqueness of Arctic climate change. Recommendations include considering migration typology, disentangling climate drivers from contextual factors, and addressing data limitations through systematic collection, integration, and creative use of traditional and nontraditional data. The paper underscores the importance of establishing partnerships with local communities to achieve a holistic understanding of factors driving migration or immobility, ensuring research outcomes are connected to addressing community challenges. This review lays the groundwork for empirical research on Arctic migration and community adaptation, aiming to comprehend the challenges faced by these communities and explore potential solutions.

This paper explores how claims for transformative adaptation toward more equitable and sustainable societies can be assessed. We build on a theoretical framework describing transformative adaptation as it manifests across four core elements of the public-sector adaptation lifecycle: vision, planning, institutional frameworks, and interventions. For each element, we identify characteristics that can help track adaptation as transformative. Our purpose is to identify how governance systems can constrain or support transformative choices and thus enable targeted interventions. We demonstrate and test the usefulness of the framework with reference to three government-led adaptation projects of nature-based solutions (NBS): river restoration (Germany), forest conservation (China), and landslide risk reduction (Italy). Building on a desktop study and open-ended interviews, our analysis adds evidence to the view that transformation is not an abrupt system change, but a dynamic complex process that evolves over time. While each of the NBS cases fails to fulfill all the transformation characteristics, there are important transformative elements in their visions, planning, and interventions. There is a deficit, however, in the transformation of institutional frameworks. The cases show institutional commonalities in multi-scale and cross-sectoral (polycentric) collaboration as well as innovative processes for inclusive stakeholder engagement; yet, these arrangements are ad hoc, short-term, dependent on local champions, and lacking the permanency needed for upscaling. For the public sector, this result highlights the potential for establishing cross-competing priorities among agencies, cross-sectoral formal mechanisms, new dedicated institutions, and programmatic and regulatory mainstreaming.

Diverse agricultural land uses are a typical feature of multifunctional landscapes. The uncertain change in the drivers of global land use, such as climate, market and policy technology and demography, challenges the long-term management of agricultural diversification. As these global drivers also affect smaller scales, it is important to capture the traits of regionally specific farm activities to facilitate adaptation to change. By downscaling European shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for agricultural and food systems, combined with representative concentration pathways (RCP) to regionally specific, alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios, the present study explores the major impacts of the drivers of global land use on regional agriculture by simulating farm-level decisions and identifies the socio-ecological implications for promoting diverse agricultural landscapes in 2050. A hilly orchard region in northern Switzerland was chosen as a case study to represent the multifunctional nature of Swiss agriculture. Results show that the different regionalised pathways lead to contrasting impacts on orchard meadows, production levels and biodiversity. Increased financial support for ecological measures, adequate farm labour supplies for more labour-intensive farming and consumer preferences that favour local farm produce can offset the negative impacts of climate change and commodity prices and contribute to agricultural diversification and farmland biodiversity. However, these conditions also caused a significant decline in farm production levels. This study suggests that considering a broader set of land use drivers beyond direct payments, while acknowledging potential trade-offs and diverse impacts across different farm types, is required to effectively manage and sustain diversified agricultural landscapes in the long run.

Mountain regions face substantial challenges and opportunities arising from global change. The capacity of mountain regions for (systemic) innovation will be determinant to the success of system transformations envisioned by social actors of mountain communities. By analysing the social networks of two regions in the Alps and relating them to desired future visions of sustainable regional development, we provide insights about innovative capacities in mountain regions and propose how to strengthen these capacities in order to support regional transformations. In particular, we analyse innovation systems' collaboration networks to evaluate the innovative capacity of communities, co-construct visions with mountain stakeholders, and assess innovation requirements to meet these visions. Accordingly, we propose changes to the collaboration networks for addressing regional innovation system (RIS) capacities to help achieve visions through systemic innovation. Our analysis furthers the understanding on the type and magnitude of regional innovation system changes required to more effectively address desired transformative visions in mountain regions. We close by discussing implications of our approach for the assessment of innovative capacity and the transformation of mountain regions.

Over the centuries, anthropogenic pressure has severely impacted peatlands on the European continent. Peatlands cover ~ 21% (1.46 Mha) of Ireland's land surface, but 85% have been degraded due to management activities (land use). Ireland needs to meet its 2030 climate energy framework targets related to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use, land use change and forestry, including wetlands. Despite Ireland's voluntary decision to include peatlands in this system in 2020, information on land use activities and associated GHG emissions from peatlands is lacking. This study strives to fill this information gap by using Landsat (5, 8) data with Google Earth Engine and machine learning to examine and quantify land use on Irish peatlands across three time periods: 1990, 2005 and 2019. Four peatland land use classes were mapped and assessed: industrial peat extraction, forestry, grassland and residual peatland. The overall accuracy of the classification was 86% and 85% for the 2005 and 2019 maps, respectively. The accuracy of the 1990 dataset could not be assessed due to the unavailability of high-resolution reference data. The results indicate that extensive management activities have taken place in peatlands over the past three decades, which may have negative impacts on its ecological integrity and the many ecosystem services provided. By utilising cloud computing, temporal mosaicking and Landsat data, this study developed a robust methodology that overcomes cloud contamination and produces the first peatland land use maps of Ireland with wall-to-wall coverage. This has the potential for regional and global applications, providing maps that could help understand unsustainable management practices on peatlands and the impact on GHG emissions.

In recent years, it has become evident that regions with historically wetter climates, such as the Netherlands, are rapidly becoming more prone to drought due to climate change. Given that these regions tend to be accustomed to having sufficient, or even surplus, water, these new climate realities confront policy makers with the need to identify governance approaches to adapt water and land use systems to prevent significant damages to agriculture, water-dependent nature, and drinking water reserves. This research details the complex, evolving landscape of the policies, laws, and instruments in a specific region with a historically wetter climate, namely the Twente region in the Netherlands. Rapid Policy Network Mapping is employed to map the intricate multi-level implementation setting currently in place in the region. Results show that the emphasis in drought governance across European Union and national and regional governance layers is currently still on formulating objectives and developing strategies to adapt to drought. Moreover, the instruments that are currently in place are largely voluntary in nature, which raises concerns about the degree to which the current instrument mix can steer drought adaptation if their uptake is low. More worryingly, this study also identifies several policies, laws, and instruments that could hinder the implementation of drought adaptation measures, due to exemptions in legislation, conflicting policy approaches across governance layers, and concerns over the (behavioral) effects of certain instruments.

The dependence on imports of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for its food needs has increased steadily since the early 1960s, from 10% to about 40%. This import dependence could continue to rise in coming decades due to the projected MENA population growth and the expected negative impacts of climate change on the region's natural resources and agricultural performances. To what extent the food import dependency of the MENA region will continue to increase up to 2050 and how the region could mitigate its rising reliance on food imports is both a key question for the region itself and a crucial geopolitical issue for the world as a whole. In this paper, we use a biomass balance model to assess the level of the food import dependency of the MENA region in 2050 resulting from six scenarios. We show that under current trends and severe impacts of climate change the food import dependency of the MENA would continue to rise and reach 50% in 2050. Maghreb would be particularly affected becoming dependent on imports for almost 70% of its food needs. Adopting a Mediterranean diet, reaching faster productivity growth in agriculture or reducing waste and loss along the food chain would contribute to decelerate the rise of the MENA's food import dependency. However, only the combination of these three options could significantly offset the increased import dependency in the most affected sub-regions: Maghreb, the Middle and the Near East. In all scenarios, Turkey strengthens its position as a net exporter of agricultural products.

This article examines food security in the Sigatoka Valley, one of the most productive food regions in Fiji, in the context of recent socio-ecological challenges through a case study of Narewa village. Data were collected using semi-structured interviews ( = 25), a fixed question food insecurity experience survey ( = 25), and a free listing exercise about preferred and consumed foods ( = 24). Results revealed that while most households had access to sufficient food, the increased frequency and intensity of droughts, tropical cyclones, and flooding caused almost half to worry about meeting their future food needs. To date, a culture of sharing within the village has helped most households access food but this will likely be inadequate to meet future needs as climate change is projected to impact food production. Given that the foundation of food production in Narewa, like other villages in the valley, relies on the long-term viability of agricultural systems, better focus needs to be placed on the natural resources that form the backbone of these systems such as water availability, soil health, and slope stability and their resilience to anthropogenic and natural stressors. Efforts that focus on protecting and enhancing local ecosystems in light of expected future climate change, combined with greater attention on food storage and the use of resilient crops, and enhancing social cohesion and sharing networks are needed to avoid breaching tipping points in the food system.

Extreme weather events affect many areas around the world. How a country or region reacts to it can take many forms. In this article, we concentrate on policy responses, as typically found in laws, acts, or strategies. Recent research in climate change adaptation or environmental governance concluded that the degree of severity of extreme events is a crucial indicator that policy action should be taken. The event alone is a necessary, but insufficient condition for policies to be introduced. In this context, we ask: Which conditions must be at stake so that an extreme event is able to deploy its focal power and induce policy introduction or change? To answer this question, we studied more than two centuries of flood risk management in Switzerland. We relied on qualitative and quantitative data, as well as process tracing techniques, to relate event characteristics, media, political, and policy contexts to policy change in flood risk management. Results indicate that two conditions made floods turn into focusing events and support paradigm shift: high economic damage and a policy subsystem's actor constellation favorable to change. We are convinced that our results are also replicable for other natural disasters and other countries than only Switzerland.

Sustainable agricultural intensification aims at increasing yields on existing agricultural land without negative environmental impacts. Managing pests and diseases contributes to increasing yields. Without synthetic pesticides, this management is labour intensive. Smallholder farming systems heavily rely on manual and household labour, which will be affected by future demographic changes. Knowledge on how these changes will affect sustainable intensification is limited. Based on a case study of Ugandan cocoa farms, we tested the impact of increased household labour availability on pest and disease management (PDM) practices and pesticide use. We made use of a unique quasi-experimental design, in which household labour increased during the national COVID-19 lockdowns as children did not attend school and family members returned from cities. Our interview data from 2019 to 2021 showed that household labour availability increased on average by 0.8 (±2.5) household members and 16% of labour days per hectare. Using different regression models complemented with qualitative insights, we found that the uptake of alternative PDM practices significantly reduced pesticide quantities and expenditures. The implementation of alternative PDM practices was only weakly influenced by household labour availability and increased with farmer training and trust in alternative practices. These results imply that alternative PDM practices are an important pillar for production with little or without synthetic pesticides and their adoption requires support and incentives, especially on labour or resource-constrained farms.

Natural resource management networks cohere due to mutual dependencies and fragment, in part, due to the perceived risks of interaction. However, research on these networks has tended to accept coherence a priori rather than problematizing dependence, and few studies exist on interorganizational risk perception. This article presents the results of a study operationalizing these concepts and measuring the distribution of three types of dependence (capital, legitimacy, and regulatory) and two types of perceived risk (performance and sanction) among nearly fifty stakeholder groups and organizations participating in the management of fisheries in the binational Gulf of Maine. The analysis reveals an organizationally diverse network with several stakeholder types participating, with communications clustered binationally, with low levels of perceived risk in interacting, and interdependencies cohering the network. The types of interorganizational dependence present varied across dyadic relationships, but legitimacy dependence, based on shared understandings that organizations should work together, was the most present and had the largest effect on collaboration-oriented network traits. Sanction risk was more common than performance risk but had the most substantial negative effect. The results suggest an opportunity for additional studies of interorganizational dependance and perceived risk to operationalize and measure the sources of network coherence and fragmentation and their effect on collaboration.

Biodiversity and natural landscapes have been lost over time due to global agricultural expansion and urbanization. Our study assesses the non-market economic value of reclaiming natural landscapes in the Zuid-Limburg region of the Netherlands, a country in which large-scale intensive agriculture dominates rural landscapes. Through a discrete choice experiment conducted among non-residents of Zuid-Limburg, we find that individuals planning to visit the area are willing to contribute a similar (insignificantly different) monetary amount toward conservation efforts in the area as those who do not plan to visit. This implies that the area is largely valued for its indirect use values and non-use values rather than its option values. We further find that societal concerns explain some preferences in the choice experiment. In particular, increased levels of concern about the Dutch nitrogen crisis relate to a higher preference for agricultural businesses to be contributing to nature-inclusive farming. More concern about built-up area leads to a higher preference for natural landscapes. Furthermore, individuals with more concern about extinction risk prefer fewer animal species in Zuid-Limburg with threatened status. Moreover, our study reveals that individuals with greater patience and higher household incomes are more willing to invest in conservation efforts.

This article investigates Dutch coastal risk management in light of recent scientific evidence on long-term sea level rise. While the so-called , meant as a national boost for flood safety, remains central to the Netherlands' coastal defence strategy, our analysis reveals that it does not offer sufficient protection beyond the year 2050. It is therefore evidence of a climate adaptation gap. Drawing on the concept of lock-ins, this study examines how certain mechanisms may be at play. The study uses a framework on "adaptation lock-ins" developed by Groen et al. (2022) in an attempt to study and explain this adaptation gap. A qualitative analysis of policy documents, secondary literature and semi-structured interviews with experts points to the existence of several lock-in mechanisms which are implied in the stagnation of Dutch coastal risk management. The insights gathered are relevant for practitioners and academics alike as it might be used to inform the upcoming revision of the in 2027. At the conceptual level, the study adds insights on previously undiscovered types of lock-ins, thus adding to the explanatory power of the lock-in concept. The article concludes that further research can focus on how lock-ins vary across time, regions or contexts, and how they can be addressed and overcome.

Climate scientists have raised concerns about the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) or even its potential collapse in the future. Their messages should not hinder urgent adaptation to climate risks; rather, they underscore the growing need for adaptive planning across a range of possible futures, including high-impact, low-likelihood AMOC scenarios. There are five ways to consider the consequences of AMOC weakening or collapse in adaptation planning: (1) broaden the set of future adaptation scenarios considered; (2) develop adaptation pathways beyond the most likely range of possible outcomes; (3) create robustness and redundancy in adaptation portfolios; (4) expand the solution space, attuned to path dependencies and their implications; and (5) monitor emerging, weak signals of AMOC changes to inform adaptation planning. We argue that closer collaboration between climate scientists and the adaptation planning community is needed to generate timely, policy-relevant insights that can guide proactive and effective adaptation action.

We use a combination of proxy records from a high-resolution analysis of sediments from Searsville Lake and adjacent Upper Lake Marsh and historical records to document over one and a half centuries of vegetation and socio-ecological change-relating to logging, agricultural land use change, dam construction, chemical applications, recreation, and other drivers-on the San Francisco Peninsula. A relatively open vegetation with minimal oak () and coast redwood () in the late 1850s reflects widespread logging and grazing during the nineteenth century. Forest and woodland expansion occurred in the early twentieth century, with forests composed of coast redwood and oak, among other taxa, as both logging and grazing declined. Invasive species include those associated with pasturage ( , ), landscape disturbance (, Amaranthaceae), planting for wood production and wind barriers (), and agriculture. Agricultural species, including wheat, rye, and corn, were more common in the early twentieth century than subsequently. Wetland and aquatic pollen and fungal spores document a complex hydrological history, often associated with fluctuating water levels, application of algaecides, raising of Searsville Dam, and construction of a levee. By pairing the paleoecological and historical records of both lakes, we have been able to reconstruct the previously undocumented impacts of socio-ecological influences on this drainage, all of which overprinted known climate changes. Recognizing the ecological manifestations of these impacts puts into perspective the extent to which people have interacted with and transformed the environment in the transition into the Anthropocene.

Nearly a billion people depend on tropical seascapes. The need to ensure sustainable use of these vital areas is recognised, as one of 17 policy commitments made by world leaders, in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 ('Life below Water') of the United Nations. SDG 14 seeks to secure marine sustainability by 2030. In a time of increasing social-ecological unpredictability and risk, scientists and policymakers working towards SDG 14 in the Asia-Pacific region need to know: (1) How are seascapes changing? (2) What can global society do about these changes? and (3) How can science and society together achieve sustainable seascape futures? Through a horizon scan, we identified nine emerging research priorities that clarify potential research contributions to marine sustainability in locations with high coral reef abundance. They include research on seascape geological and biological evolution and adaptation; elucidating drivers and mechanisms of change; understanding how seascape functions and services are produced, and how people depend on them; costs, benefits, and trade-offs to people in changing seascapes; improving seascape technologies and practices; learning to govern and manage seascapes for all; sustainable use, justice, and human well-being; bridging communities and epistemologies for innovative, equitable, and scale-crossing solutions; and informing resilient seascape futures through modelling and synthesis. Researchers can contribute to the sustainability of tropical seascapes by co-developing transdisciplinary understandings of people and ecosystems, emphasising the importance of equity and justice, and improving knowledge of key cross-scale and cross-level processes, feedbacks, and thresholds.

Assessing how different users of a Marine Protected Area perceive environmental changes can contribute to design management strategies. We assess how locals and tourists perceive environmental changes in the Cap de Creus protected area (NW Mediterranean, Spain). To identify locally perceived changes, we first conducted semi-structured interviews with locals ( = 38). Reported environmental changes were then used to construct a survey applied to locals and tourists ( = 427). In semi-structured interviews, environmental changes were the least reported changes compared to economic and social changes; reports of negative environmental changes dominated over reports of positive environmental changes. Overall, all survey participants reported a decline of the health status of the local environment, with locals displaying higher levels of agreement with statements referring to coastal environmental deterioration than tourists. The predominance of responses reporting economic versus environmental changes can be explained by the recent radical transformation of the area towards tourism. Reports of coastal marine area deterioration are in line with available instrumental data. Higher levels of agreement with statements referring to environmental deterioration among locals than among tourists highlight the importance of people's connection with nature to assess change. Considering that Cap de Creus has been protected for more than two decades, our findings raise concerns regarding its ongoing deterioration and underscore the importance of monitoring the effectiveness of marine protection to modulate management strategies.

Weather extremes are the biggest challenge for supply chains worldwide, with food supply chains particularly exposed due to agriculture's sensitivity to weather conditions. Whilst attention has been paid to farm-level impacts from, and adaptation to, weather extremes, there remains a need to better understand how different actors along the supply chain suffer, react and adapt to these natural hazards and how their resilience-building strategies affect other actors' and the whole system's resilience. Taking the UK potato supply chain as a case study, this paper analyses the synergies and trade-offs in drought resilience in a multi-level food supply chain. Data from an online survey (87) and interviews with key informants (27) representing potato supply-chain actors (growers, packers, processors, retailers) were used to analyse drought risk perceptions, impacts and coping strategies, long-term resilience measures and further actions to build system resilience. Results suggest that the potato supply chain has increased its resilience to weather extremes due to retailers and packers having a wider geographical spread of supply, an increasing reliance on forward contracts and favouring growers with water security. However, a conceptual framework of resilience-building strategies adopted by supply chain actors shows that these measures are largely designed to reduce their own risk without considering implications for other parts of the chain and the system as a whole. A more integrated approach to promote drought resilience in complex food supply chains that enables improved vertical collaboration and trust between actors is therefore needed.

Farming in Europe has been the scene of several important socio-economic and environmental developments and crises throughout the last century. Therefore, an understanding of the historical driving forces of farm change helps identifying potentials for navigating future pathways of agricultural development. However, long-term driving forces have so far been studied, e.g. in anecdotal local case studies or in systematic literature reviews, which often lack context dependency. In this study, we bridged local and continental scales by conducting 123 oral history interviews (OHIs) with elderly farmers across 13 study sites in 10 European countries. We applied a driving forces framework to systematically analyse the OHIs. We find that the most prevalent driving forces were the introduction of new technologies, developments in agricultural markets that pushed farmers for farm size enlargement and technological optimisation, agricultural policies, but also cultural aspects such as cooperation and intergenerational arrangements. However, we find considerable heterogeneity in the specific influence of individual driving forces across the study sites, implying that generic assumptions about the dynamics and impacts of European agricultural change drivers hold limited explanatory power on the local scale. Our results suggest that site-specific factors and their historical development will need to be considered when addressing the future of agriculture in Europe in a scientific or policy context.

This work aimed to evaluate changes in water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water availability) and precipitation extremes projected under global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, in Brazil. An ensemble of eight twenty-first-century projections with the Eta Regional Climate Model and their driving Global Climate Models (CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and BESM) were used. Projections of two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, considered intermediate and high concentration, respectively, were used. The results indicate that the RCP8.5 scenario under 2 °C GWL is likely to have a higher impact on the water balance components, amplifying trends in drier conditions and increasing the number of consecutive dry days in some regions of Brazil, particularly in the North and Northeast regions. On the other hand, the projections indicate the opposite sign for the South region, with trends toward wetter conditions and significant increases in extreme rainfall. The 0.5 °C difference between the GWLs contributes to intensifying reductions (increases) from 4 to 7% in water availability, mainly in the North-Northeast (South) regions. The projected changes could have serious consequences, such as increases in the number of drought events in hydrographic regions of the Northeast region of Brazil and increases in flood events in the South of the country. The results here presented can contribute to the formulation of adaptive planning strategies aimed at ensuring Brazil's water security towards climate change.

While there has been a considerable conceptual discussion of trapped populations in the environmental migration literature, the empirical evidence on their existence is scarce. I examine why many people remain in environmentally vulnerable areas by analyzing newly collected survey panel data of 1515 household heads living along the Jamuna River in Bangladesh, an area affected by riverbank erosion and flooding. To examine whether immobility is voluntary or involuntary, I assess the migration aspirations and capability to move of those who did not migrate after environmental shocks occurred in their village. The majority (82%) of non-migrants can be classified as voluntary non-migrants, while 13% can be considered "trapped" and the remaining 5% as acquiescent non-migrants. Being affected by erosion significantly increases the likelihood that immobility is involuntary by 7.9 percentage points, while also lowering the socio-economic status of the affected population. Taken together, these results suggest that environmental change may indeed lead to the "trapping" of parts of the population in exposed areas by eroding their capability to move while simultaneously increasing their migration aspirations. The findings have important policy implications, as they raise a word of caution against prematurely labeling all populations staying in environmentally exposed areas as "trapped" without considering their migration aspirations-a majority may in fact be voluntary non-migrants.