We analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses on the global economy and food security in 80 low- and middle-income countries. We use a global economy-wide model with detailed disaggregation of agricultural and food sectors and develop a business-as-usual baseline for 2020 and 2021 called "But-for-COVID" (BfC). We then shock the model with aggregate income shocks derived from the IMF World Economic Outlook for 2020 and 2021. We impose total-factor productivity losses in key sectors as well as consumption decreases induced by social distancing. The resulting shocks in prices and incomes from the CGE model simulations are fed into the USDA-ERS International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model to derive the impact of the pandemic on food security in these 80 countries. The main effect of the pandemic was to exacerbate the existing declining trend in food security. Food insecurity increases considerably in countries in Asia through income shocks rather than prices effects. We also review trade policies that were put in place to restrict imports and exports of food, and we evaluate their potential for further disruption of markets focusing on the food-security implications.

Food markets around the world have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic via consumer behavior upended by fear of infection. In this article, we examine the impact of disclosing COVID-19 contact tracing information on food markets, using the restaurant industry in China as a case study. By analyzing transaction data at 87 restaurants across 10 cities, we estimate difference-in-difference (DID) models to ascertain the impact of COVID-19 infections and contact information tracing on economic activity as measured by a daily number of transactions. Empirical results show that while the overall number of new COVID-19 infections at the national level caused a dramatic drop in numbers of transactions in all restaurants, restaurants in cities that disclosed contact tracing information of COVID-19 infections experienced a 23%-35% higher number of transactions than the ones in cities that did not disclose such information during the recovery period. Ultimately, we show that in the absence of a shelter-in-place mandate, disclosing contract tracing information to mitigate consumers' uncertainties about risks of being infected can contribute to a faster recovery of food markets, in addition to reducing COVID-19 infections.

This study assesses the extent of COVID-19-related food insecurity in Kenya, Tanzania, and Namibia. Using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, we measure food insecurity in various dimensions and document several food access disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic between April and July 2020. Furthermore, we assess the association of COVID-19 countermeasures with the adoption of various strategies in line with the coping strategies index. We rely on a unique phone survey that followed households who participated in an earlier field-based survey. First, through Ordinary Least-Squares and Probit regressions, we show a strong and statistically significant association between COVID-19 countermeasures and food access disruptions and food insecurity in each of the three countries. We then use a multivariate probit regression model to understand the use of the various coping strategies, including reducing food intake, increasing food search, and relying more on less nutritious foods. We provide evidence on the complementarities and trade-offs in using these coping strategies. COVID-19 and related lockdown measures coincided with a deleterious increase in food insecurity in rural Africa.

Concerns over the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have led to trade restrictions by major rice exporters, contributing to an average 25% increase in Thai and Vietnamese rice export prices between December 2019 and March-September 2020. This article assesses the consequences of these rice price increases in Papua New Guinea (PNG), where 99% of rice is imported. Utilizing data from a PNG 2018 rural household survey along with earlier national household survey data, we examine rice consumption patterns in PNG and estimate demand parameters for urban and rural households. Model simulations indicate that a 25% rise in the world price of rice would reduce total rice consumption in PNG by 14% and reduce rice consumption of the poor (bottom 40% of total household expenditure distribution) by 15%. Including the effects of a possible 12% decrease in household incomes because of the COVID-19 related economic slowdown, rice consumption of the urban and rural poor fall by 20% and 17%, respectively. Maintaining functioning domestic supply chains of key staple goods is critical to mitigating the effects of global rice price increases, allowing urban households to increase their consumption of locally produced staples.

It is widely feared that the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a significant worsening of the food security situation in low and middle-income countries. One reason for this is the disruption of food marketing systems and subsequent changes in farm and consumer prices. Based on primary data in Ethiopia collected just before the start and a few months into the pandemic, we assess changes in farm and consumer prices of four major vegetables and the contribution of different segments of the rural-urban value chain in urban retail price formation. We find large, but heterogeneous, price changes for different vegetables with relatively larger changes seen at the farm level, compared to the consumer level, leading to winners and losers among local vegetable farmers due to pandemic-related trade disruptions. We further note that despite substantial hurdles in domestic trade reported by most value chain agents, increases in marketing-and especially transportation-costs have not been the major contributor to overall changes in retail prices. Marketing margins even declined for half of the vegetables studied. The relatively small changes in marketing margins overall indicate the resilience of these domestic value chains during the pandemic in Ethiopia.

Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has caused ongoing disruptions to U.S. meat markets via demand and supply-side shocks. Abnormally high prices have been reported at retail outlets and meat packers have been accused of unfair business practices because of widening price spreads. Processing facilities have experienced COVID-19 outbreaks resulting in shutdowns. Using weekly data on wholesale and retail prices of beef, pork, and poultry, we characterize the time series behavior and dynamic linkages of U.S. meat prices before the COVID-19 pandemic. We model vertical price transmission using both linear and threshold autoregressive (AR) models and vector error correction (VEC) models. With the estimated models, we then compare price movements under COVID-19 to model predictions. All three meat markets are well-integrated and we observe unexpected, large price movements in April and May of 2020. Early COVID-19 related shocks appear to be transitory with prices returning to expected levels at a pace consistent with the speed of transmission prior to the pandemic. This well-functioning market process suggests a degree of resilience in U.S. meat supply chains.

This study examines the effects of local and nationwide COVID-19 disease control measures on the health and economy of China's rural population. We conducted phone surveys with 726 randomly selected village informants across seven rural Chinese provinces in February 2020. Four villages (0.55%) reported infections, and none reported deaths. Disease control measures had been universally implemented in all sample villages. About 74% of informants reported that villagers with wage-earning jobs outside the village had stopped working due to workplace closures. A higher percentage of rural individuals could not work due to transportation, housing, and other constraints. Local governments had taken measures to reduce the impact of COVID-19. Although schools in all surveyed villages were closed, 71% of village informants reported that students were attending classes online. Overall, measures to control COVID-19 appear to have been successful in limiting disease transmission in rural communities outside the main epidemic area. Rural Chinese citizens, however, have experienced significant economic consequences from the disease control measures.

This article provides evidence of the immediate impacts of the first months of the COVID-19 crisis on farming communities in central Myanmar using baseline data from January 2020 and follow-up phone survey data from June 2020 with 1,072 women and men. Heterogeneous effects among households are observed. Fifty-one percent of the sample households experienced income loss from various livelihood activities, and landless households were more severely affected by the crisis, mainly because of lost farm and nonfarm employment and negative impacts on rural enterprises. Women and men in these landless households were equally engaged and affected by lower wages or more difficulties in finding farm work; fewer women were engaged in nonfarm work, but almost all of them lost such nonfarm wage employment. Women in landless households are also particularly vulnerable in terms of worsened workload and increased tension in the household during COVID-19. Landed households were also affected through lower prices, lower demand for crops, and difficulties in input access. Women and men differ in levels of stress, fear, and pessimism regarding the effects of COVID-19. In most households, there were no signs that household task-sharing and work balance improved, and no clear shift in intrahousehold relations was observed.

In March 2020, India declared a nationwide lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Such restrictions on mobility interrupted the normal functioning of agricultural value chains. For a sample of 1767 tomato and wheat producers in the state of Haryana, we study to what extent the lockdown limited access to inputs, labor, machinery, and markets to produce, harvest, and sell their crops. We quantify crop income reductions during the first months of the lockdown and analyze to what extent these are associated with borrowing and food insecurity. We find that wheat producers, for whom state-led procurement guaranteed market access at fixed prices, suffered minimal declines in income. For tomato producers-an already more vulnerable population-income fell by 50% relative to their expected income in a normal year, largely due to a steep fall of tomato prices as they shifted from wholesale markets to local retail markets, resulting in a sharp increase in local supply. Relative to wheat producers affected by the lockdown, reduced income for tomato producers was associated with an increase in borrowing and reduced food security. We conclude that targeting producers of crops that face substantial price risk and introducing policies that stabilize market prices are important in efforts to aid recovery and build resilience of smallholder farmers.

This study assesses the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on poverty, food insecurity, and diets, accounting for the complex links between the crisis and the incomes and living costs of vulnerable households. Key elements are impacts on labor supply, effects of social distancing, shifts in demand from services involving close contact, increases in the cost of logistics in food and other supply chains, and reductions in savings and investment. These are examined using IFPRI's global general equilibrium model linked to epidemiological and household models. The simulations suggest that the global recession caused by COVID-19 will be much deeper than that of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The increases in poverty are concentrated in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa with impacts harder in urban areas than in rural. The COVID-19-related lockdown measures explain most of the fall in output, whereas declines in savings soften the adverse impacts on food consumption. Almost 150 million people are projected to fall into extreme poverty and food insecurity. Decomposition of the results shows that approaches assuming uniform income shocks would underestimate the impact by as much as one-third, emphasizing the need for the more refined approach of this study.

In this paper we descriptively investigate the Covid-19 pandemic's early impact on the fruit and vegetable supply chain in Senegal, using trade statistics and survey data collected through online questionnaires and telephone interviews with smallholder farmers, agro-industrial companies, agricultural workers, traders, importers, and consumers. Our results point to major differences in how Covid-19 and containment measures disrupt supply chains between the modern export-oriented supply chain that is centered around a few large vertically integrated agro-industrial companies, and the more traditional domestic-oriented supply chain with a large number of smallholder farmers and informal traders-with the former being more resilient to the Covid-19 shock. We show that both the modern and the traditional supply chain innovate to cope with the Covid-19 containment measures. While our study is subject to some limitations, our findings bring nuance in the debate on the resilience of the food system to the pandemic, and have important policy and research implications toward international trade, social safety measures, and food and nutrition security.

Coronavirus disease 2019 and related lockdown policies in 2020 shocked food industry firms' supply chains in developing regions. Firms "pivoted" to e-commerce to reach consumers and e-procurement to reach processors and farmers. "Delivery intermediaries" copivoted with food firms to help them deliver and procure. This was crucial to the ability of the food firms to pivot. The pandemic was a "crucible" that induced this set of fast-tracking innovations, accelerating the diffusion of e-commerce and delivery intermediaries, and enabling food industry firms to redesign, at least temporarily, and perhaps for the long term, their supply chains to be more resilient, and to weather the pandemic, supply consumers, and contribute to food security. We present a theoretical model to explain these firm strategies, and then apply the framework to classify firms' practical strategies. We focus on cases in Asia and Latin America. Enabling policy and infrastructural conditions allowed firms to pivot and copivot fluidly.

The food system, and those who depend on it, have been strongly but unevenly affected by COVID-19. Overall, the impacts on food systems, poverty, and nutrition have been caused by a combination of a generalized economic recession and disruptions in agri-food supply chains. This paper provides an overview of the contributions to this Special Issue of . The papers in this volume confirm that both income shocks and supply disruptions have affected food security and livelihoods the most where supply chains were more poorly integrated, and poverty and market informality had greater presence before COVID-19. Yet, as the pandemic still has societies worldwide in a stranglehold, outcomes remain uncertain and reliable data are still sparsely available. This Special Issue of provides new insights of the pandemics impact on food systems, household welfare, and food security, building on both model-based scenario analysis and new survey data. These methods have proven helpful in providing these insights amidst the unprecedented shock that the pandemic has caused to production systems and livelihoods worldwide. However, they also suffer from obvious limitations identified in this editorial overview paper and require substantial improvement in order to understand the changes in economic behavior and functioning of food supply chains induced by the pandemic.

This article examines the short-term effects of the COVID-19 lockdown on food security and nutrition in rural Guatemala. We rely on a comprehensive panel dataset of 1,824 small agricultural households collected over two survey rounds, on November-December 2019 and May-June 2020. We place special emphasis on changes in agricultural and nonagricultural income sources, including remittances, and changes in dietary diversity, including consumption of animal source foods (ASF) and fruits and vegetables (F&V). We find that COVID-19 affected the incomes, food security, and dietary patterns of households, with a decrease in ASF diversity and an increase in F&V diversity, and an overall net decrease in dietary diversity across all food groups. Dietary diversity among women in reproductive age, however, remained unchanged, and increased among children under 2 years old. Interestingly, households with relatively higher incomes appear to have reduced their dietary diversity to a larger extent than lower income ones, as well as households located in communities with more severe access restrictions. The focus of the study in a region with a high prevalence of poverty and chronic malnutrition provides an important perspective into the consequences of the lockdown in complex rural contexts with vulnerable populations and contributes to inform eventual recovery measures.

New data and new methods have provided many new insights into rural households in the past 50 years. We analyze what we have learned from household models since Boserup and Becker, using this to frame more recent findings about household behavior from three types of studies: observational studies, experimental games, and impact evaluations. More sex-disaggregated data, as well as data that are collected at smaller units, such as agricultural plots, have allowed us to better understand agricultural productivity, risk sharing, and spousal cooperation. However, the focus on bargaining within households has often led us to ignore the cooperation that occurs within households. Many resources are owned and managed jointly by household members and many decisions are made jointly, although not all parties necessarily have equal voice in these decisions. Research demonstrating that households often do not reach efficient outcomes suggests that we still have much to learn about rural household behavior. Understanding both individual roles within households and the levels of cooperation, including joint decision making and ownership of resources, is essential to analysis of households, especially in rural areas where households engage in both production and consumption.

Effective agricultural extension is key to improving productivity, increasing farmers' access to information, and promoting more diverse sets of crops and improved methods of cultivation. In India, however, the coverage of agricultural extension workers and the relevance of extension advice is poor. We investigate whether a women's self-help group (SHG) platform could be an effective way of improving access to information, women's empowerment in agriculture, agricultural practices, and production diversity. We use cross-sectional data on close to 1,000 women from five states in India and employ nearest-neighbor matching models to match SHG and non-SHG women along a range of observed characteristics. We find that participation in an SHG increases women's access to information and their participation in some agricultural decisions, but has limited impact on agricultural practices or outcomes, possibly due to financial constraints, social norms, and women's domestic responsibilities. SHGs need to go beyond provision of information to changing the dynamics around women's participation in agriculture to effectively translate knowledge into practice.

In 2013, Ethiopia's Agricultural Transformation Agency introduced the Wheat Initiative to increase smallholder productivity. In this article, we measure the impacts of the Wheat Initiative package of technologies, and its marketing assistance component alone, on yields among a promotional group of farmers. The package includes improved techniques, improved inputs, and a guaranteed market for the crop. Relying on crop-cut measures and farmers' own assessments, we find that full package led to an average 14% higher yields. Implementation of the Wheat Initiative was successful in making certified seed and fertilizer accessible to farmers and increasing their uptake, though only 61% of the intervention group adopted row planting and few farmers received marketing assistance. The measured yield difference may underestimate the true yield difference associated with the technology because of incomplete adoption of the recommended practices by intervention farmers and adoption of some practices by control farmers.

World food prices have increased dramatically in recent years. We use panel data from 2006 to examine the impact of these increases on the consumption and nutrition of poor households in two Chinese provinces. We find that households in Hunan suffered no nutrition declines. Households in Gansu experienced a small decline in calories, though the decline is on par with usual seasonal effects. The overall nutritional impact of the world price increase was small because households were able to substitute to cheaper foods and because the domestic prices of staple foods remained low due to government intervention in grain markets.

Sub-Saharan Africa faces low agricultural productivity amid a confluence of trends that include rapid population growth, climate change, and the rise of the middle class. To raise productivity, governments-in partnership with donors and development organizations-have launched numerous initiatives to encourage the development of sustainable and competitive agricultural input markets. Despite these efforts, markets remain underdeveloped in most countries and access to affordable seeds and fertilizers remains a major challenge for smallholder farmers. This paper explores evidence from recent multicountry analyses of input delivery systems to assess the possibility of a Green Revolution in Africa. It describes use and adoption levels, challenges, policy and regulatory issues, and investments needed to expand smallholder access to these productivity-enhancing agricultural technologies.