The time required to identify and confirm risk factors for new diseases and to design an appropriate treatment strategy is one of the most significant obstacles medical professionals face. Traditionally, this approach entails several clinical studies that may last several years, during which time strict preventative measures must be in place to contain the epidemic and limit the number of fatalities. Analytical tools may be used to direct and accelerate this process. This study introduces a six-state compartmental model to explain and assess the impact of age demographics by designing a dynamic, explainable analytics model of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. An age-stratified mathematical model taking the form of a deterministic system of ordinary differential equations divides the population into different age groups to better understand and assess the impact of age on mortality. It also provides a more accurate and effective interpretation of the disease evolution, specifically in terms of the cumulative numbers of infected cases and deaths. The proposed Kermack-Mckendrick model is incorporated into a non-linear least-squares optimization curve-fitting problem whose optimized parameters are numerically obtained using the Levenberg-Marquard algorithm. The curve-fitting model's efficiency is proved by testing the age-stratified model's performance on three U.S. states: Connecticut, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Our results confirm that splitting the population into different age groups leads to better fitting and forecasting results overall as compared to those achieved by the traditional method, i.e., without age groups. By using comprehensive models that account for age, gender, and ethnicity, regional public health authorities may be able to avoid future epidemics from inflicting more fatalities and establish a public health policy that reduces the burden on the elderly population.

Early prediction of COVID-19 infected communities (potential hotspots) is essential to limit the spread of virus. Diagnostic testing has limitations in big populations because it cannot deliver information at a fast enough rate to stop the spread in its early phases. Wastewater based epidemiology (WBE) experiments showed promising results for brisk detection of 'SARS CoV-2' RNA in urban wastewater. However, a systematic and targeted approach to track COVID-19 virus in the complex wastewater networks at a community level is lacking. This research combines graph network (GN) theory with fuzzy logic to determine the chances of a specific community being a COVID-19 hotspot in a wastewater network. To detect 'SARS-CoV-2' RNA, GN divides wastewater network into communities and fuzzy logic-based inference system is used to identify targeted communities. For the propose of tracking, 4000 sample cases from Minnesota (USA) were tested based on various contributing factors. With a probability score of greater than 0.8, 42% of cases were likely to be designated as COVID-19 hotspots based on multiple demographic characteristics. The research enhances the conventional WBE approach through two novel aspects, viz. (1) by integrating graph theory with fuzzy logic for quick prediction of potential hotspot along with its likelihood percentage in a wastewater network, and (2) incorporating the uncertainty associated with COVID-19 contributing factors using fuzzy membership functions. The targeted approach allows for rapid testing and implementation of vaccination campaigns in potential hotspots. Consequently, governmental bodies can be well prepared to check future pandemics and variant spreading in a more planned manner.

The global pandemic caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 has posed significant risks to our health. Preventive measures such as closed management have greatly affected the economies, environments and societies of various countries. Economy, air pollution and income are three important interconnected aspects of sustainable development. However, current research lacks systematic quantitative analysis of their relationships. To fill the gap, this study adopts monthly data from January 2016 to April 2022 and constructs both a Simultaneous Equation Model (SEM) and a Time Varying Parameter Stochastic Volatility Vector Autoregressive (TVP-SV-VAR) model to empirically analyze the impact of COVID-19 on China's economy, air pollution and income. This study finds that the COVID-19 has a negative impact on China's economy and income, and a positive impact on air pollution, and the impact of the COVID-19 is systematic. In addition, there is an inverted-U shaped relationship between air pollution and economics, and a positive correlation between economic and income. The impact of COVID-19 on the economy, air pollution and income show a process of sharp fluctuations to gradual stabilization that gradually stabilized over time. This process is time-varying in the short-term, medium-term and long-term. The impacts are persistent at three different time points (before, during and after the outbreak of COVID-19), but the negative impact on the economy and income is persistent, while the positive impact on air pollution is limited. This study provides a more systematic and dynamic understanding of the COVID-19 preventive and mitigation measures in China and even the world, which helps to provide insights into the formulation of more comprehensive planning strategies in the future.

This study examined the concentration of BTEX in Tehran from 2018 to 2020 in five monitoring stations with different backgrounds, which has been accomplished using the combination of passive sampling and GC-FID method. The total concentration of BTEX was estimated to be 65.39 (µg/m), with a higher average concentration in 2019-2020 (77.79 µg/m) compared to 2018-2019 (53.48 µg/m) due to the leaping concentration of Toluene in the pandemic era. Despite a Benzene concentration decline in recent years, the average annual concentration of Benzene (5.66 µg/m) at five stations remained higher than the EU commission and India standards (5 µg/m) as well as Japan and Iraq thresholds (3 µg/m). Toluene dominated other species in terms of concentrations, mass distribution (~0.6%), followed by m,p-Xylene (~0.2%), Benzene (~0.05-0.1) and Ethylbenzene (< 0.05). The evidence regarding seasonal changes of BTEX in 2019 shows the maximum concentration of these compounds in autumn, which is probably due to heavier traffic compared to other seasons. In contrast, in the first half of 2020 (which encompasses the start of the pandemic period and urban lockdown), point sources seem to play a prominent role in concentration fluctuations, as confirmed by changes in interspecies relationships and lower traffic congestion. The highest mean concentrations were observed in high-traffic, residential and suburban sites, respectively. The study reveals that m,p-Xylene possess the highest Ozone formation potential (~109.46), followed by Toluene (~85.34), o-Xylene (~46.87), Ethylbenzene (~13.52) and Benzene (~2.61). Health risk assessment results indicated the high carcinogenic risk of Benzene (mean = 3.6 × 10) and the acceptable non-carcinogenic risk of BTEX (hazard index~0.03 < specified limit of 1). Finally, the estimated weighted exposures of BTEX emphasized that residents near the high-traffic districts are more exposed to BTEX.

This study aims to demonstrate the impact of renewable energy consumption (REC) on environmental degradation using the EKC hypothesis testing for the BRIC and G-7 countries. Two EKC models were created and tested, with Model 2 including REC and other independent variables such as economic freedom (EF) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU), which affect the level of renewable energy consumption and CO emissions. Empirical findings indicate that the EKC hypothesis is verified faster in the REC-EF-EPU-based EKC model (Model 2) than in the EF-EPU-based EKC model (Model 1) for G-7 countries since the turning point takes place earlier in Model 2 than in Model 1 with REC. This suggests that renewable energy consumption accelerates the reduction of CO emissions. Moreover, this earlier turning point results in lower environmental cleaning costs, less time vesting, and saving resources and money for G-7 countries. However, the study found no evidence supporting the EKC hypothesis for the BRIC countries.

It is now almost three years that COVID-19 has been the cause of misery for millions of people around the world. Many countries are in process of vaccination. Due to the social complexity of the problem, the future of decisions is not clear. As such, there is a need for the mathematical modeling to predict the long-run behavior of the COVID-19 dynamic for the decision-making with regard to the result of the pandemic on the economy, health, and others. In this paper, we have studied the short and long-run behavior of COVID-19. In a novel way, random evolution (Trichotomous and Dichotomous Markov Noise) is used to model and analyze the long-run behavior of the pandemic in different phases of the pandemic in different countries. On the given conditions, the random evolution model can help us establish the long-run asymptotic behaviour of the pandemic. This allows us to consider different phases of the pandemic as well as the effect of vaccination and other measures taken. The simplicity of the model makes it a practical tool for decision-making based on the long-run behavior of the pandemic. As such, we have established a criterion for the comparison of different regions and countries in different phases. In this regard, we have used real pandemic data from different countries to validate our results.

We propose a novel model selection algorithm based on a penalized maximum likelihood estimator (PMLE) for functional hidden dynamic geostatistical models (f-HDGM). These models employ a classic mixed-effect regression structure with embedded spatiotemporal dynamics to model georeferenced data observed in a functional domain. Thus, the regression coefficients are functions. The algorithm simultaneously selects the relevant spline basis functions and regressors that are used to model the fixed effects. In this way, it automatically shrinks to zero irrelevant parts of the functional coefficients or the entire function for an irrelevant regressor. The algorithm is based on an adaptive LASSO penalty function, with weights obtained by the unpenalised f-HDGM maximum likelihood estimators. The computational burden of maximisation is drastically reduced by a local quadratic approximation of the log-likelihood. A Monte Carlo simulation study provides insight in prediction ability and parameter estimate precision, considering increasing spatiotemporal dependence and cross-correlations among predictors. Further, the algorithm behaviour is investigated when modelling air quality functional data with several weather and land cover covariates. Within this application, we also explore some scalability properties of our algorithm. Both simulations and empirical results show that the prediction ability of the penalised estimates are equivalent to those provided by the maximum likelihood estimates. However, adopting the so-called one-standard-error rule, we obtain estimates closer to the real ones, as well as simpler and more interpretable models.

The weekend effect, i.e., the concentration of air pollutants is different from weekends to weekdays, has been explored since the 1970 s. In most studies, the weekend effect is referred to the change of O , i.e., lower emission of NO on weekends leads to a higher concentration of O . Determining whether it is true can provide insight into the strategy of air pollution controlling. In this study, we explore the weekly cycle of cities of China based on the weekly cycle anomaly (WCA), which is proposed in this paper. The advantage of using WCA is that we can avoid the influence of other change components such as the daily cycle and the seasonal cycle. The values of the significant tests from all cities are analyzed for obtaining a whole picture of the weekly cycle of air pollution. The result shows that the concept of the weekend effect is not proper for cities in China, as many cities reach the valley phase of the emission on weekdays but not weekends. Thus, researches should not pre-assume that the weekend is the low emission scenario. We focus on the anomaly of O on the peak and the valley of the emission scenario estimated by the NO concentration. Through the analysis of the distribution of the values of all cities, we show that almost all cities in China have weekly cycle of O corresponding to the weekly cycle emission of NO , i.e., O of the peak time of NO is less than valley time. The cities of the strong weekly cycle are located in four regions, i.e., the Beijing-Tianjing-Hebei region, the Shandong Peninsula Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta, and these regions are also the regions with relatively severe pollution levels.

The Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX) is a stochastic population-based inhalation exposure model which (along with its earlier version called pNEM) has been used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for over 30 years for assessment of human exposure to airborne pollutants. This study describes the application of a variance decomposition-based sensitivity analysis using the Sobol method to elucidate the key APEX inputs and processes that affect variability in exposure and dose for the simulated population. Understanding APEX's sensitivities to these inputs helps not only the model user but also the EPA in prioritizing limited resources towards data-collection and analysis efforts for the most influential variables, in order to maintain the quality and defensibility of the simulation results. This analysis examines exposure to ozone of children ages 5-18 years. The results show that selection of activity diaries and microenvironmental parameters (including air-exchange rate and decay rate) are the most influential to estimated exposure and dose, their aggregate main-effect indices (MEIs) equaling 0.818 (out of a maximum of 1.0) for daily-average ozone exposure and 0.469 for daily-average inhaled ozone dose. The modeled person's home location, sampled from national Census data, has a modest influence on exposure (MEI = 0.079 for daily averages), while age, sex, and body mass, also sampled from Census and other survey data, have modest influences on inhaled dose (aggregate MEI = 0.307). The sensitivity analysis also plays a quality-assurance role by evaluating the sensitivities against our knowledge of the physical properties of the model.

Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 transmission is necessary to plan better strategies for controlling the spread of the disease. However, only a few studies explore the COVID-19 transmission risk over a fine spatial resolution while considering relevant spatial and temporal factors. To this aim, we consider an inhomogeneous marked Poisson point process model to assess COVID-19 transmission risk using data of home addresses of confirmed cases, in relation to locations of sources of crowd (enterprise, market, and place of worship) and population density in Surabaya and Sidoarjo, Indonesia. Our marked model is able to analyze how the spatial covariates are varying with time, helping authorities to evaluate the information of covariates depending on the period in which restrictions are taking place. Our results show that enterprise, place of worship, and population densities have significant impact to the transmission risk in Surabaya and Sidoarjo. We finally provide predicted risk maps which provide additional information based on the demographic-based risk analysis to help conduct more efficient testing, tracing, and vaccination programs.

This paper introduces a new modeling framework for the statistical analysis of point patterns on a manifold defined by a connected and compact two-point homogeneous space, including the special case of the sphere. The presented approach is based on temporal Cox processes driven by a -valued log-intensity. Different aggregation schemes on the manifold of the spatiotemporal point-referenced data are implemented in terms of the time-varying discrete Jacobi polynomial transform of the log-risk process. The -dimensional microscale point pattern evolution in time at different manifold spatial scales is then characterized from such a transform. The simulation study undertaken illustrates the construction of spherical point process models displaying aggregation at low Legendre polynomial transform frequencies (large scale), while regularity is observed at high frequencies (small scale). -function analysis supports these results under temporal short, intermediate and long range dependence of the log-risk process.

Previous studies suggest that flood-rich and flood-poor periods are present in many flood peak discharge series around the globe. Understanding the occurrence of these periods and their driving mechanisms is important for reliably estimating future flood probabilities. We propose a method for detecting flood-rich and flood-poor periods in peak-over-threshold series based on scan-statistics and combine it with a flood typology in order to attribute the periods to their flood-generating mechanisms. The method is applied to 164 observed flood series in southern Germany from 1930 to 2018. The results reveal significant flood-rich periods of heavy-rainfall floods, especially in the Danube river basin in the most recent decades. These are consistent with trend analyses from the literature. Additionally, significant flood-poor periods of snowmelt-floods in the immediate past were detected, especially for low-elevation catchments in the alpine foreland and the uplands. The occurrence of flood-rich and flood-poor periods is interpreted in terms of increases in the frequency of heavy rainfall in the alpine foreland and decreases of both soil moisture and snow cover in the midlands.

With advances in modern worlds technology, huge datasets that show dependencies in space as well as in time occur frequently in practice. As an example, several monitoring stations at different geographical locations track hourly concentration measurements of a number of air pollutants for several years. Such a dataset contains thousands of multivariate observations, thus, proper statistical analysis needs to account for dependencies in space and time between and among the different monitored variables. To simplify the consequent multivariate spatio-temporal statistical analysis it might be of interest to detect linear transformations of the original observations that result in straightforward interpretative, spatio-temporally uncorrelated processes that are also highly likely to have a real physical meaning. Blind source separation (BSS) represents a statistical methodology which has the aim to recover so-called latent processes, that exactly meet the former requirements. BSS was already successfully used in sole temporal and sole spatial applications with great success, but, it was not yet introduced for the spatio-temporal case. In this contribution, a reasonable and innovative generalization of BSS for multivariate space-time random fields (stBSS), under second-order stationarity, is proposed, together with two space-time extensions of the well-known algorithms for multiple unknown signals extraction (stAMUSE) and the second-order blind identification (stSOBI) which solve the formulated problem. Furthermore, symmetry and separability properties of the model are elaborated and connections to the space-time linear model of coregionalization and to the classical principal component analysis are drawn. Finally, the usefulness of the new methods is shown in a thorough simulation study and on a real environmental application.

Air pollution has very damaging effects on human health. In recent years the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has created a worldwide economic disaster. Although the consequences of the COVID-19 lockdowns have had severe effects on economic and social conditions, these lockdowns also have also left beneficial effects on improving air quality and the environment. This research investigated the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on NO2 and O3 pollutants changes in the industrial and polluted cities of Arak and Tehran in Iran. Based on this, the changes in NO2 and O3 levels during the 2020 lockdown and the same period in 2019 were investigated in these two cities. For this purpose, the Sentinel-5P data of these two pollutants were used during the lockdown period from November 19 to December 05, 2020, and at the same time before the pandemic from November 19 to December 05, 2019. For better results, the effect of climatic factors such as rain and wind in reducing pollution was removed. The obtained results indicate a decrease in NO2 and O3 levels by 3.5% and 6.8% respectively in Tehran and 20.97% and 5.67% in Arak during the lockdown of 2020 compared to the same time in 2019. This decrease can be caused by the reduction in transportation and socio-economic and industrial activities following the lockdown measures. This issue can be a solid point to take a step toward controlling and reducing pollution in non-epidemic conditions by implementing similar standards and policies in the future.

Bangladesh is highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change, particularly extreme rainfall during the monsoon season, leading to severe floods and landslides. This study introduces a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) modeling framework, which integrates atmospheric dry bulb temperatures as a covariate to capture the seasonal and dynamic characteristics of extreme rainfall events. Using daily rainfall and temperature data from Dhaka (1990-2015) and Chattogram (1999-2015), the study identifies optimal models based on AIC, BIC, and goodness-of-fit criteria. Uncertainties in the predictions are quantified using the delta method and parametric bootstrap approaches. The results indicate a higher likelihood of extreme rainfall events in Chattogram compared to Dhaka, as reflected in the predictions and probabilities in return levels. Diagnostic evaluations confirm that the models effectively capture the variability in monthly maximum rainfall during the monsoon. These findings offer valuable information for flood risk management, urban planning, and disaster preparedness. By incorporating temperature effects and quantifying prediction uncertainties, the study addresses key limitations in existing methodologies. Future work will expand this framework to assess spatiotemporal rainfall variability in Bangladesh and explore advanced machine learning approaches to simultaneously model the bulk and tail of rainfall distributions.

100 years after the Spanish flu, the COVID-19 crisis showed that large-scale epidemics and pandemics do not belong to the past. On the report of the World Health Organization, COVID-19 is the most significant public health problem of the twenty-first century. Like previous epidemics, the current crisis is accompanied by uncertainty, mistrust, doubt and fear, and this has led to an infodemic connection to the epidemic. So not only are we fighting an epidemic, but also, we are brawling an infodemic. To reduce the social and economic consequences and harmful effects of infodemic health, and to overcome it, we need to implement strategies against infodemic. Evaluating strategies based on multiple characteristics can be considered multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. According to the literature, there is no study that aims on proposing an integrated approach to evaluate infodemic management strategies under uncertain environment. Therefore, in this paper, an integrated framework based on the extended version of best-worst method (BWM) and Combined Compromise Solution (CoCoSo) methods under a spherical fuzzy set (SFS) is developed for the first time to address the COVID-19 infodemic management strategies selection. Initially, the criteria are weighted using the developed SFS BWM which reduces uncertainty in pairwise comparisons. In the next step, the 15 selected strategies are analyzed and ranked using SFS CoCoSo. The outputs of this paper illustrate that online tools for fact checking COVID-19 information and engage and empower communities are placed in the first and second priorities, respectively. The comparison of ranking results SFS-CoCoSo with other MCDM methods demonstrates the performance of the proposed approach and its ranking stability.

Given the link between climatic factors on one hand, such as climate change and low frequency climate oscillation indices, and the occurrence and magnitude of heat waves on the other hand, and given the impact of heat waves on mortality, these climatic factors could provide some predictive skill for mortality. We propose a new model, the Mortality-Duration-Frequency (MDF) relationship, to relate the intensity of an extreme summer mortality event to its duration and frequency. The MDF model takes into account the non-stationarities observed in the mortality data through covariates by integrating information concerning climate change through the time trend and climate variability through climate oscillation indices. The proposed approach was applied to all-cause mortality data from 1983 to 2018 in the metropolitan regions of Quebec and Montreal in eastern Canada. In all cases, models introducing covariates lead to a substantial improvement in the goodness-of-fit in comparison to stationary models without covariates. Climate change signal is more important than climate variability signal in explaining maximum summer mortality. However, climate indices successfully explain a part of the interannual variability in the maximum summer mortality. Overall, the best models are obtained with the time trend and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) used as covariates. No country has yet integrated teleconnection information in their heat-health watch and warning systems or adaptation plans. MDF modeling has the potential to be useful to public health managers for the planning and management of health services. It allows predicting future MDF curves for adaptive management using the values of the covariates.

Due to our limited knowledge about complex environmental systems, our predictions of their behavior under different scenarios or decision alternatives are subject to considerable uncertainty. As this uncertainty can often be relevant for societal decisions, the consideration, quantification and communication of it is very important. Due to internal stochasticity, often poorly known influence factors, and only partly known mechanisms, in many cases, a stochastic model is needed to get an adequate description of uncertainty. As this implies the need to infer constant parameters, as well as the time-course of stochastic model states, a very high-dimensional inference problem for model calibration has to be solved. This is very challenging from a methodological and a numerical perspective. To illustrate aspects of this problem and show options to successfully tackle it, we compare three numerical approaches: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and Conditional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Sampling. As a case study, we select the analysis of hydrological data with a stochastic hydrological model. We conclude that the performance of the investigated techniques is comparable for the analyzed system, and that also generality and practical considerations may be taken into account to guide the choice of which technique is more appropriate for a particular application.

Simulation of random fields is widely used in Earth sciences for modeling and uncertainty quantification. The spatial features of these fields may have a strong impact on the forecasts made using these fields. For instance, in flow and transport problems the connectivity of the permeability fields is a crucial aspect. Multi-Gaussian random fields are the most common tools to analyze and model continuous fields. Their spatial correlation structure is described by a covariance or variogram model. However, these types of spatial models are unable to represent highly or poorly connected structures even if a broad range of covariance models can be employed. With this type of model, the regions with values close to the mean are always well connected whereas the regions of low or high values are isolated. Substitution random functions (SRFs) belong to another broad class of random functions that are more flexible. SRFs are constructed by composing () two stochastic processes: the directing function (latent field) and the coding process (modifying the latent field in a stochastic manner). In this paper, we study the properties of SRFs obtained by combining stationary multi-Gaussian random fields for both and with bounded variograms. The resulting SRFs are stationary, but as has a finite variance is not ergodic for the mean and the covariance. This means that single realizations behave differently from each other. We propose a simple technique to control which values (low, intermediate, or high) are connected. It consists of adding a control point on the process to guide every single realization. The conditioning to local values is obtained using a Gibbs sampler.

Pandemics are not new, but they continue to prevail in the last three decades. A variety of reasons such as globalization, trade growth, urbanization, human behavior change, and the rise of the prevalence of viral diseases among animals can account for this issue. Outbreaks of COVID-19 indicated that viral diseases have spread easily among nations, influencing their economic stability. In this vein, the motivation behind the present study was to get an understanding of the effect of the rise of the health disaster risk on the dynamics of Iran's macroeconomic variables by using Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium. As opposed to Computable General Equilibrium models, DSGE models can be evaluated in a stochastic environment. Since the duration of the virus outbreak and its effect on the economy is not known, it is more appropriate to use these models. The results demonstrated that increased health disaster risk has a remarkable negative effect on macroeconomic variables. According to the findings of the research and the significance of public vaccination as an essential solution for improving health status and quality of life, it was suggested that the government pave the path for the thriving of businesses and socio-economic activities as early as possible by employing specific policies such as tax exemption or budget allocation for vaccine manufacturing companies or importers.

Urbanization affects atmospheric boundary layer dynamics by altering cloud formation and precipitation patterns through the urban heat island (UHI) effect, perturbed wind flows, and urban aerosols, that overall contribute to the urban rainfall effect (URE). This study analyzes an ensemble of numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its version with coupled chemistry and aerosols (WRF-Chem) through a Functional ANalysis Of VAriance (FANOVA) approach to isolate the urban signature from the regional climatology and to investigate the relative contributions of various mechanisms and drivers to the URE. Different metropolitan areas across the United States are analyzed and their urban land cover and anthropogenic emissions are replaced with dominant land-use categories such as grasslands or croplands and biogenic only emissions, as in neighboring regions. Our findings indicate a significant role of the urban land cover in impacting surface temperature and turbulent kinetic energy over the city, and precipitation patterns, both within and downwind of the urban environment. Moreover, simulations of a deep convection event suggest that the aerosols impact dominates the sign and spatial extent of the changes in the simulated precipitation compared to the UHI effect, leading to a significant precipitation enhancement within the urban borders and suppression in downwind regions.