This paper investigates the relationship between regional exposure to trade liberalization under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and infant health outcomes in the U.S., focusing on differences in impact across areas with varying levels of import competition. I explore this question by implementing event studies and difference-in-difference regressions that compare birth outcomes of infants born in different years relative to NAFTA and localities with differential exposure to import competition. Using more than 88M birth records of Natality data, I find significant negative effects on a wide range of birth outcomes. The adverse effects are much larger for infants at the lower tails of birth weight and gestational age distribution. Additional analyses using a wide range of alternative data sources suggest several potential pathways, including reductions in income-employment, decreases in housing wealth, lower health care utilization, lower health insurance use, and lower-quality health insurance.

Nearly $2 trillion of illegally trafficked goods flow across international borders every year, generating violence and other social costs along the way. Due to the absence of legal contracts and the challenge of finding trading partners in an illegal market, traffickers may rely on co-ethnic networks to facilitate trade. In this paper, I use novel microdata on the universe of large illegal drug confiscations in Spain to provide the first causal estimates of how immigrants and immigration policy affect the pattern and scale of illegal drug trafficking. I find that immigrants increase both illegal drugs imported from and exported to their origin country, with irregular immigrants raising illegal drug imports. Doubling the number of immigrants from an origin country raises the likelihood of illegal drug imports from that country by 8 percentage points. I find suggestive evidence that granting legal status to immigrants reduces illegal drug imports.

Using newly validated data on geographic migration networks, we study how labor demand shocks in the United States propagate across the border with Mexico. We show that the large exogenous decline in US employment brought about by the Great Recession affected demographic and economic outcomes in Mexican communities that were highly connected to the most affected markets in the US. In the Mexican locations with strong initial ties to the hardest hit US migrant destinations, return migration increased, emigration decreased, and remittance receipt declined. These changes significantly increased local employment and hours worked, but wages were unaffected. Investment in children's education also slowed in these communities. These findings document the effects in Mexico when potential migrants lose access to a strong US labor market, providing insight into the potential impacts of stricter US migration restrictions.

We utilize the global natural experiment created by the COVID-19 outbreak to identify sovereign borrowing capacity in time of need and its determinants. First, we demonstrate that the pandemic creates exogeneous shocks to sovereign borrowing needs-governments borrowed more when hit by more severe pandemic shocks. Second, we show that credible fiscal rules enhance sovereign borrowing capacity, while unsustainable debts in terms of high debt-to-GDP ratio, rollover risk, and sovereign default risk weaken it. Third, we find that, in response to the same pandemic shock, sovereign spreads increase more in emerging economies than advanced economies though the former borrow less during the pandemic. Finally, further analysis reveals that pegged exchange rate regimes, open capital accounts, and monetary dependence improve emerging economies' borrowing capacity.

We study the role of global supply chains in the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on GDP growth using a multi-sector quantitative framework implemented on 64 countries. We discipline the labor supply shock across sectors and countries using the fraction of work in the sector that can be done from home, interacted with the stringency with which countries imposed lockdown measures. One quarter of the total model-implied real GDP decline is due to transmission through global supply chains. However, "renationalization" of global supply chains does not in general make countries more resilient to pandemic-induced contractions in labor supply. This is because eliminating reliance on foreign inputs increases reliance on the domestic inputs, which are also disrupted due to nationwide lockdowns. In fact, trade can insulate a country imposing a stringent lockdown from the pandemic-shock, as its foreign inputs are less disrupted than its domestic ones. Finally, unilateral lifting of the lockdowns in the largest economies can contribute as much as 2.5% to GDP growth in some of their smaller trade partners.

"This paper examines the problem of guest-worker migration from an economy populated by identical, utility-maximizing individuals with finite working lives. The decision to migrate, the rate of saving while abroad, as well as the length of a migrant's stay in the foreign country, are all viewed as part of a solution to an intertemporal optimization problem. In addition to studying the microeconomic aspects of temporary migration, the paper analyses the determinants of the equilibrium flow of migrants, the corresponding domestic wage, and the level of welfare enjoyed by a typical worker. Effects of an emigration tax are also investigated."

"This paper extends the work of Ethier on illegal immigration by examining the optimal level of enforcement for the labor-importing country in a two-country model and by considering the effects of allowing capital mobility. We derive a formula for the optimal level of enforcement against firms that hire illegal workers, and show that the presence of enforcement costs makes the policy less efficient than a wage tax. With capital mobility, foreign workers gain from an increase in enforcement in the home country because capital is driven out of the home country."

"This paper extends the standard (two-factor, one-good) model of international factor movements, to include unemployment due to a minimum-income guarantee within the capital-abundant country. From this country's perspective, we establish important departures from previous (full-employment) results. Most notably, our analysis shows that: (1) free factor mobility is worse than no mobility; (2) the optimal degree of labour migration is zero; and (3) national welfare can always be maximized by an optimal flow of capital. The analysis is then extended to examine: (1) illegal migration; (2) subsidization of employment; and (3) alternative views of unemployment."

"Microeconomic simulations are performed to determine the impact of liberalized commodity trade on Mexican immigrant supply to the United States. The results suggest that a removal of trade barriers will reduce migration flows, but that the reduction will be fairly modest. Specifically, if both countries move from the levels of protection characteristic of the mid-1960s to completely free trade, the ratio of real U.S.-Mexican wages falls by roughly 18 percent. Using an upper bound for the range of empirical estimates of the wage elasticity of immigrant supply, this implies a maximum reduction in migration flows of 35 percent. A unilateral elimination of trade barriers by the United States reduces Mexican immigrant supply by a maximum of 14 percent."

"Conventional economic wisdom holds that the migration of unskilled labor from less developed countries to neighboring developed countries should be expected to narrow the wage gap between those countries, and thereby reduce the incentive for further migration. [The authors suggest that] if capital is mobile internationally this reasoning may be inappropriate. Instead, emigration of unskilled labor out of the less developed country provides an incentive for capital to leave the country, too. As a consequence, wage rates move in the same direction in each country, and the gap between wage rates across countries even may increase."

"The paper extends Manning's model on education and balanced growth to include labour immigration. Each immigration unit is assumed to consist of one skilled worker and some unskilled members. The optimal immigration policy which maximizes the per capita steady-state consumption of the host country is derived. We show that optimal immigration policy can reduce the steady-state skilled labour ratio. More interesting still, contrary to the widespread belief that immigration of skilled workers hurts local skilled workers, it is the unskilled local workers whose interests are threatened by optimal immigration policy."