Teleworking and housing demand
The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the trend towards teleworking. Many predicted that this would shift housing demand to the suburbs and homes with the potential for high quality office space. We examine these predictions using a survey of the working age population who live in the private housing sector. The majority in the sector are happy with their current home, but new teleworkers who plan to continue to do so - accounting for one fifth of the population - are characterised by a higher intention to move. Consistent with predictions, these teleworkers value a high quality home office more than others and are prepared to live further away from the centre to find it.
Is there a diminishing willingness to pay for consumption amenities as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic?
We employ the Covid-19 pandemic as an unanticipated event in order to investigate the willingness to pay for consumption amenities such as restaurants, cinemas and theaters. We use a hedonic pricing model in combination with a time-gradient difference-in-difference approach. Our data set contains virtually all apartments for sale in the larger Stockholm area. We use a very detailed and flexible definition of the density of consumption amenities based on the exact location of these amenities and the walking distance from the apartments to these amenities. Although there are differences between specifications, we find a decrease of 3.9 percent of apartments that we label as amenity rich. Based on the average apartment price, this equals a drop of 195,240 Swedish Kronor (or almost 22,000 US dollars).
The Effects of Owner-Occupied Housing on Student Outcomes: Evidence from NYC
The view of owning a home as integral to the "American dream" is enshrined in numerous policies designed to promote homeownership. Whether or not these policies are worth their cost is unclear and depends, in part, on the extent to which owner-occupied housing (OOH) confers socially important benefits. Yet identifying the effects of OOH is complicated, not only due to standard concerns about selection, but also because OOH tends to be located in neighborhoods with better amenities (including schools) and is often synonymous with living in a single-family home. In this paper we use rich, longitudinal student-level data to examine whether students in OOH have better academic and health outcomes than those in renter occupied housing (ROH). We address concerns about selection using student fixed effects and a rich set of individual, building, and neighborhood controls. We find that that there is notable variation in both the characteristics and size of OOH and the types of students who live in OOH in NYC. While raw differences show that students who live in OOH have better outcomes-they are less likely to be chronically absent, obese, or overweight and have higher standardized test scores-much of this disparity is explained by differences in the students who select into OOH. In models where we account for selection into OOH and building type with rich controls and student fixed effects, we find small positive effects of moving into OOH on attendance and math scores with no consistent evidence of any impacts of OOH on BMI or obesity, suggesting that policies that promote homeownership might be oversold.
The response of regional well-being to place-based policy interventions
Enhancing the well-being of its citizens is the central remit of the EU's regional policy, but as yet, there is no analysis of the effects of EU regional policy on local well-being. The aim of this paper is to examine this relationship. To do this, we define a novel regionalised well-being measure and we exploit a dataset on regional expenditure in a continuous treatment framework. Based on both parametric and semi-parametric approaches, our analysis demonstrates that the EU regional development policy does influence regional well-being differently from GDP. We find evidence of a linear monotonic response of well-being growth to total transfers, although this effect varies according to the time lag considered and the level of development of the region.
The virus that devastated tourism: The impact of covid-19 on the housing market
We study the causal impact of the negative shock on short-term rentals caused by covid-19 in the tourist-intensive city centre of Lisbon. Our difference-in-differences strategy uses a parish-level treatment relying on the pre-pandemic intensity of short-term rentals, using data between Q3 2018 and Q3 2020. The results suggest that landlords relocated properties into the long-term rental market, in which prices de-crease 4.1%, while listed quantities increase 20% in the treated civil parishes comparison ones. We also find evidence of an incremental negative impact on sale prices of 4.8% in treated areas. Our results are robust to the inclusion of Porto.
Local inequalities of the COVID-19 crisis
This paper assesses the pandemic's impact on Italian local economies with the newly developed machine learning control method for counterfactual building. Our results document that the economic effects of the COVID-19 shock vary dramatically across the Italian territory and are spatially uncorrelated with the epidemiological pattern of the first wave. The largest employment losses occurred in areas characterized by high exposure to social aggregation risks and pre-existing labor market fragilities. Lastly, we show that the hotspots of the COVID-19 crisis do not overlap with those of the Great Recession. These findings call for a place-based policy response to address the uneven economic geography of the pandemic.
Epidemic shocks and housing price responses: Evidence from China's urban residential communities
This paper evaluates the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the real estate market using a community-level panel dataset of 34 major cities in China. We find that the average housing price in communities with COVID-19 infections decreases by approximately 1.3% compared to communities with no confirmed cases. The economic implication is that homebuyers are willing to pay a premium equivalent to approximately 1.3% of the average housing price to avoid health risks. The response of real estate markets to epidemic shocks is heterogeneous in community and city characteristics. Dynamic analysis shows that the declines in home prices, transaction volumes, and rents are all short-lived, returning to their original development paths a few months after the epidemic shock. Public interventions such as community closures and quarantines may have contributed to the rapid recovery of the housing market, reducing the volatility of housing assets in the household sector.
Economic diversification and the resiliency hypothesis: Evidence from the impact of natural disasters on regional housing values
We estimate the effect regional economic diversification has on the resiliency of the U.S. housing market, treating the spatial and temporal variation in natural disasters as exogenous shocks to regional economies. Our study demonstrates that diversity dampens both the magnitude and the duration of the effects of a disaster on local real estate values. Implications of our findings for the potential benefits of diversification in regional economies are discussed.
Does Proximity to Fast Food Cause Childhood Obesity? Evidence from Public Housing
We examine the causal link between proximity to fast food and the incidence of childhood obesity among low-income households in New York City. Using individual-level longitudinal data on students living in public housing linked to restaurant location data, we exploit the naturally occurring within-development variation in distance to fast food restaurants to estimate the impact of proximity on obesity. Since the assignment of households to specific buildings is based upon availability at the time of assignment to public housing, the distance between student residence and retail outlets-including fast food restaurants, wait-service restaurants, supermarkets, and corner stores-is plausibly random. Our credibly causal estimates suggest that childhood obesity increases with proximity to fast food, with larger effects for younger children who attend neighborhood schools.
It's not about the money. EU funds, local opportunities, and Euroscepticism
Growing Euroscepticism across the European Union (EU) leaves open questions as to what citizens expect to gain from EU Membership and what influences their dissent for EU integration. This paper looks at the EU Structural Funds, one of the largest and most visible expenditure items in the EU budget, to test their impact on electoral support for the EU. By leveraging the Referendum on Brexit held in the United Kingdom, a spatial RDD analysis offers causal evidence that EU money does not influence citizens' support for the EU. Conversely, the analysis shows that EU funds mitigate Euroscepticism only where they are coupled with tangible improvements in local labour market conditions, the ultimate objective of this form of EU intervention. Money cannot buy love for the EU, but its capacity to generate new local opportunities certainly can.
Do Tax Incentives Affect Business Location and Economic Development? Evidence from State Film Incentives
I estimate the impacts of recently-popular U.S. state film incentives on filming location, film industry employment, wages, and establishments, and spillover impacts on related industries. I compile a detailed database of incentives, matching this with TV series and feature film data from the Internet Movie Database (IMDb) and Studio System, and establishment and employment data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and Country Business Patterns. I compare these outcomes in states before and after they adopt incentives, relative to similar states that did not adopt incentives over the same time period (a panel difference-in-differences). I find that TV series filming increases by 6.3 to 55.4% (at most 1.50 additional TV series) after incentive adoption. However, there is no meaningful effect on feature films, and employment, wages, and establishments in the film industry and in related industries. These results show that the ability for tax incentives to affect business location decisions and economic development is mixed, suggesting that even with aggressive incentives, and "footloose" filming, incentives can have little impact.
Persistent Social Networks: Civil War Veterans Who Fought Together Co-Locate in Later Life
We demonstrate the long reach of early social ties in the location decision of individuals and in their older age mortality risk using data on Union Army veterans of the US Civil War (1861-5). We estimate discrete choice migration models to quantify the trade-offs across locations faced by veterans. Veterans were more likely to move to a neighborhood or county where men from their same war company lived and were more likely to move to such areas than to areas where other veterans were located. Veterans also were less likely to move far from their origin and avoided urban immigrant areas and high mortality risk areas. They also avoided areas that opposed the Civil War. This co-location evidence highlights the existence of persistent social networks. Such social networks had long-term consequences: veterans living close to war-time comrades had a 6% lower probability of dying.
Gentrification and Residential Mobility in Philadelphia
Gentrification has provoked considerable controversy surrounding its effects on residential displacement. Using a unique individual-level, longitudinal data set, this study examines mobility rates and residential destinations of residents in gentrifying neighborhoods during the recent housing boom and bust in Philadelphia for various strata of residents and different types of gentrification. We find that vulnerable residents, those with low credit scores and without mortgages, are generally no more likely to move from gentrifying neighborhoods compared with their counterparts in nongentrifying neighborhoods. When they do move, however, they are more likely to move to lower-income neighborhoods. Residents in gentrifying neighborhoods at the aggregate level have slightly higher mobility rates, but these rates are largely driven by more advantaged residents. These findings shed new light on the heterogeneity in mobility patterns across residents in gentrifying neighborhoods and suggest that researchers should focus more attention on the of residential moves and nonmoves for less advantaged residents, rather than mobility rates alone.
Fear of nuclear power? Evidence from Fukushima nuclear accident and land markets in China
This paper examines whether the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Accident (FNA) changed the Chinese public's attitude toward nuclear energy by studying transactions in land markets near nuclear power plants in China. Using a data set that matched the details of all nuclear reactors in China with information on land transactions around them before and after the FNA, we find that the accident had dynamic effects on land markets in China. Land prices within 40 km of nuclear power plants dropped by about 18% one month after the nuclear accident. However, the impact of FNA decreased over the longer term, eventually becoming statistically insignificant. Also, the impacts of the disaster varied with plant characteristics such as operating status, construction year, and size.
Location, quality and choice of hospital: Evidence from England 2002-2013
We investigate (a) how patient choice of hospital for elective hip replacement is influenced by distance, quality and waiting times, (b) differences in choices between patients in urban and rural locations, (c) the relationship between hospitals' elasticities of demand to quality and the number of local rivals, and how these changed after relaxation of constraints on hospital choice in England in 2006. Using a data set on over 500,000 elective hip replacement patients over the period 2002 to 2013 we find that patients became more likely to travel to a provider with higher quality or lower waiting times, the proportion of patients bypassing their nearest provider increased from 25% to almost 50%, and hospital elasticity of demand with respect to own quality increased. By 2013 average hospital demand elasticity with respect to readmission rates and waiting times were - 0.2 and - 0.04. Providers facing more rivals had demand that was more elastic with respect to quality and waiting times. Patients from rural areas have smaller disutility from distance.
Estimation of Partially Specified Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Models with Fixed-Effects
This paper studies estimation of a partially specified spatial panel data linear regression with fixed-effects. Under the assumption of strictly exogenous regressors and strictly exogenous spatial weighting matrix, the unknown parameter is estimated by applying the instrumental variable estimation. Under some sufficient conditions, the proposed estimator for the finite dimensional parameter is shown to be root-N consistent and asymptotically normally distributed; The proposed estimator for the unknown function is shown to be consistent and asymptotically distributed as well, though at a rate slower than root-N. Consistent estimators for the asymptotic variance-covariance matrices of both estimators are provided. The results can be generalized to several spatial weighting matrice and spatial matrix which vary with time. The simulation results suggest that the proposed approach has some practical value.
The effectiveness-efficiency trade-off in health care: The case of hospitals in Lombardy, Italy
We study the presence and the magnitudes of trade-offs between health outcomes and hospitals' efficiency using a data set from Lombardy, Italy, for the period 2008-2011. Our goal is to analyze whether the pressures for cost containment may affect hospital performance in terms of population health status. Unlike previous work in this area, we analyze hospitals at the ward level so comparisons can be made across more homogeneous treatments. We focus on two different health outcomes: mortality and readmission rates. We find that there is a trade-off between mortality rates and efficiency, as more efficient hospitals have higher mortality rates. We also find, however, that more efficient hospitals have lower readmission rates. Moreover, we show that focusing the analysis at the ward level is essential, since there is evidence of higher mortality rates in general medicine and surgery, while in oncology mortality is lower in more efficient hospitals. Furthermore, we find that consideration of spatial processes is important since mortality rates are higher for hospitals subject to high degree of horizontal competition, but lower for those hospitals having strong competition but high efficiency. This implies that the interplay of efficient resource allocation and hospital competition is important for the sustainability and effectiveness of regional health care systems.
Does a hospital's quality depend on the quality of other hospitals? A spatial econometrics approach
We examine whether a hospital's quality is affected by the quality provided by other hospitals in the same market. We first sketch a theoretical model with regulated prices and derive conditions on demand and cost functions which determine whether a hospital will increase its quality if its rivals increase their quality. We then apply spatial econometric methods to a sample of English hospitals in 2009-10 and a set of 16 quality measures including mortality rates, readmission, revision and redo rates, and three patient reported indicators, to examine the relationship between the quality of hospitals. We find that a hospital's quality is positively associated with the quality of its rivals for seven out of the sixteen quality measures. There are no statistically significant negative associations. In those cases where there is a significant positive association, an increase in rivals' quality by 10% increases a hospital's quality by 1.7% to 2.9%. The finding suggests that for some quality measures a policy which improves the quality in one hospital will have positive spillover effects on the quality in other hospitals.
Who Moves to Mixed-Income Neighborhoods?
This paper uses confidential Census data, specifically the 1990 and 2000 Census Long Form data, to study the income dispersion of recent cohorts of migrants to mixed-income neighborhoods. We investigate whether neighborhoods with high levels of income dispersion attract economically diverse in-migrants. If recent in-migrants to mixed-income neighborhoods exhibit high levels of income dispersion, this is consistent with stable mixed-income neighborhoods. If, however, mixed-income neighborhoods are comprised of homogenous low-income (high-income) cohorts of long-term residents combined with homogenous high-income (low-income) cohorts of recent arrivals, this is consistent with neighborhood transition. Our results indicate that neighborhoods with high levels of income dispersion do in fact attract a much more heterogeneous set of in-migrants, particularly from the tails of the income distribution. Our results also suggest that the residents of mixed-income neighborhoods may be less heterogeneous with respect to lifetime income.
U.S. suburbanization in the 1980s
"This paper measures and analyzes differences in rates of suburbanization during the 1980s among U.S. metropolitan areas which fit a monocentric urban model. Three findings are of interest: (1) the average rate of suburbanization for U.S. metropolitan areas was the same in the 1980s and the 1970s; (2) the monocentric urban model provides a good description of population distribution for a diminishing number of urban areas; and (3) variables that characterize the entire metropolitan area as well as those that measure disparities between the central city and its suburban ring are important in explaining differences in rates of decentralization."
Occupational change, employer change, internal migration, and earnings
"In this paper I use microdata from the [U.S.] Panel Study of Income Dynamics to measure the financial returns to intercounty and interstate migration for individuals in a temporal framework accounting for gains that accrue over time.... To account for the indirect effects of migration on earnings, explanatory variables are created by interacting migration status with: (1) occupational change, (2) employer change and (3) changes in both occupation and employer. These interaction terms are then included in the earnings functions. Earnings are estimated for three years subsequent to the migration decision to account for the financial returns to migration accruing over time. Results indicate that, when estimating earnings, the use of a simple migration dummy variable will mask the indirect effects of migration on earnings."
