Frontiers in Forests and Global Change

Regional variation in growth and survival responses to atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur deposition for 140 tree species across the United States
Dalton RM, Miller JN, Greaver T, Sabo RD, Austin KG, Phelan JN, Thomas RQ and Clark CM
Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) alter tree demographic processes via changes in nutrient pools, soil acidification, and biotic interactions. Previous work established tree growth and survival response to atmospheric N and S deposition in the conterminous United States (CONUS) data by species; however, it was not possible to evaluate regional variation in response using that approach. In this study, we develop species- and region-specific relationships for growth and survival responses to N and S deposition for roughly 140 species within spatially demarcated regions of the U.S. We calculated responses to N and S deposition separately for 11 United States Forest Service (USFS) Divisions resulting in a total of 241 and 268 species × Division combinations for growth and survival, respectively. We then assigned these relationships into broad categories of vulnerability and used ordinal logistic regressions to explore the covariates associated with vulnerability in growth and survival to N and S deposition. As with earlier studies, we found growth and survival responses to air pollution differed by species; but new to this study, we found 45%-70% of species responses also varied spatially across regions. The regional variation in species responses was not simply related to atmospheric N and S deposition, but was also associated with regional effects from precipitation, soil pH, mycorrhizal association, and deciduousness. A large amount of the variance remained unexplained (total variation explained ranged from 6.8%-13.8%), suggesting that these or additional factors may operate at finer spatial scales. Taken together, our results demonstrate that regional variation in tree species' response has significant implications for setting critical load targets, as critical loads can now be tailored for specific species at management-relevant scales.
Avoided wildfire impact modeling with counterfactual probabilistic analysis
Thompson MP and Carriger JF
Assessing the effectiveness and measuring the performance of fuel treatments and other wildfire risk mitigation efforts are challenging endeavors. Perhaps the most complicated is quantifying avoided impacts. In this study, we show how probabilistic counterfactual analysis can help with performance evaluation. We borrow insights from the disaster risk mitigation and climate event attribution literature to illustrate a counterfactual framework and provide examples using ensemble wildfire simulations. Specifically, we reanalyze previously published fire simulation data from fire-prone landscapes in New Mexico, USA, and show applications for post-event analysis as well as pre-event evaluation of fuel treatment scenarios. This approach found that treated landscapes likely would have reduced fire risk compared to the untreated scenarios. To conclude, we offer ideas for future expansions in theory and methods.
Distribution of a Foliage Disease Fungus Within Canopies of Mature Douglas-Fir in Western Oregon
Lan YH, Shaw DC, Lee EH and Beedlow PA
is a common native, endophytic fungus of Douglas-fir foliage, which causes Swiss needle cast, an important foliage disease that is considered a threat to Douglas-fir plantations in Oregon. Disease expression is influenced by fungal fruiting bodies (pseudothecia), which plug the stomata and inhibit gas exchange. Trees are impacted when pseudothecia plug stomates on 1-year-old and older needles resulting in early needle abscission. Mature (100 years+) trees appear to be less impacted from disease, and we hypothesize this is due to the greater emergence of pseudothecia on older than younger needles, which allows for more needle retention. We measured the density of pseudothecia occluding stomates across 2- to 5-year-old needles from upper, middle, and lower canopy positions of mature trees at three sites in the Oregon Coast Range and two sites in the western Oregon Cascade Mountains. Binomial generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was used to test for the effects of canopy position (upper, middle, and lower), sites, needle age (2-5 years old), and years (2016 and 2017), and their interactions on the pseudothecia density. Pseudothecia density varied annually depending on sites, needle age and canopy positions. Pseudothecia density peaked on 3-, and 4-year-old needles, however, needles emerging from the same year, like 2-year-old needles in 2016 and 3-year-old needles in 2017 both emerged in 2014, had consistently similar patterns of pseudothecia density for both years, across site and canopy positions. Canopy position was important for 3-, and 4-year-old needles, showing less pseudothecia in the lower canopy. This research confirms that pseudothecia density is greatest in 3- and 4-year old needles in mature trees in contrast to plantations where pseudothecia density usually peaks on 2-year-old needles, and that pseudothecia density (disease severity) is generally lower in mature trees. Something about mature forest canopies and foliage appears to increase the time it takes for pseudothecia to emerge from the needles, in contrast to younger plantations, thus allowing the mature trees to have greater needle retention.
Recent Nitrogen Storage and Accumulation Rates in Mangrove Soils Exceed Historic Rates in the Urbanized San Juan Bay Estuary (Puerto Rico, United States)
Wigand C, Oczkowski AJ, Branoff BL, Eagle M, Hanson A, Martin RM, Balogh S, Miller KM, Huertas E, Loffredo J and Watson EB
Tropical mangrove forests have been described as "coastal kidneys," promoting sediment deposition and filtering contaminants, including excess nutrients. Coastal areas throughout the world are experiencing increased human activities, resulting in altered geomorphology, hydrology, and nutrient inputs. To effectively manage and sustain coastal mangroves, it is important to understand nitrogen (N) storage and accumulation in systems where human activities are causing rapid changes in N inputs and cycling. We examined N storage and accumulation rates in recent (1970 - 2016) and historic (1930 - 1970) decades in the context of urbanization in the San Juan Bay Estuary (SJBE, Puerto Rico), using mangrove soil cores that were radiometrically dated. Local anthropogenic stressors can alter N storage rates in peri-urban mangrove systems either directly by increasing N soil fertility or indirectly by altering hydrology (e.g., dredging, filling, and canalization). Nitrogen accumulation rates were greater in recent decades than historic decades at Piñones Forest and Martin Peña East. Martin Peña East was characterized by high urbanization, and Piñones, by the least urbanization in the SJBE. The mangrove forest at Martin Peña East fringed a poorly drained canal and often received raw sewage inputs, with N accumulation rates ranging from 17.7 to 37.9 g y in recent decades. The Piñones Forest was isolated and had low flushing, possibly exacerbated by river damming, with N accumulation rates ranging from 18.6 to 24.2 g y in recent decades. Nearly all (96.3%) of the estuary-wide mangrove N (9.4 Mg ha) was stored in the soils with 7.1 Mg ha sequestered during 1970-2017 (0-18 cm) and 2.3 Mg ha during 1930-1970 (19-28 cm). Estuary-wide mangrove soil N accumulation rates were over twice as great in recent decades (0.18 ± 0.002 Mg hay) than historically (0.08 ± 0.001 Mg hay). Nitrogen accumulation rates in SJBE mangrove soils in recent times were twofold larger than the rate of human-consumed food N that is exported as wastewater (0.08 Mg ha y), suggesting the potential for mangroves to sequester human-derived N. Conservation and effective management of mangrove forests and their surrounding watersheds in the Anthropocene are important for maintaining water quality in coastal communities throughout tropical regions.
Recent Carbon Storage and Burial Exceed Historic Rates in the San Juan Bay Estuary Peri-Urban Mangrove Forests (Puerto Rico, United States)
Wigand C, Eagle M, Branoff BL, Balogh S, Miller KM, Martin RM, Hanson A, Oczkowski AJ, Huertas E, Loffredo J and Watson EB
Mangroves sequester significant quantities of organic carbon (C) because of high rates of burial in the soil and storage in biomass. We estimated mangrove forest C storage and accumulation rates in aboveground and belowground components among five sites along an urbanization gradient in the San Juan Bay Estuary, Puerto Rico. Sites included the highly urbanized and clogged Caño Martin Peña in the western half of the estuary, a series of lagoons in the center of the estuary, and a tropical forest reserve (Piñones) in the easternmost part. Radiometrically dated cores were used to determine sediment accretion and soil C storage and burial rates. Measurements of tree dendrometers coupled with allometric equations were used to estimate aboveground biomass. Estuary-wide mangrove forest C storage and accumulation rates were estimated using interpolation methods and coastal vegetation cover data. In recent decades (1970-2016), the highly urbanized Martin Peña East (MPE) site with low flushing had the highest C storage and burial rates among sites. The MPE soil carbon burial rate was over twice as great as global estimates. Mangrove forest C burial rates in recent decades were significantly greater than historic decades (1930-1970) at Cañno Martin Peña and Piñones. Although MPE and Piñones had similarly low flushing, the landscape settings (clogged canal vs forest reserve) and urbanization (high vs low) were different. Apparently, not only urbanization, but site-specific flushing patterns, landscape setting, and soil fertility affected soil C storage and burial rates. There was no difference in C burial rates between historic and recent decades at the San José and La Torrecilla lagoons. Mangrove forests had soil C burial rates ranging from 88 g m y at the San José lagoon to 469 g m y at the MPE in recent decades. Watershed anthropogenic CO emissions (1.56 million Mg C y) far exceeded the annual mangrove forest C storage rates (aboveground biomass plus soils: 17,713 Mg C y). A combination of maintaining healthy mangrove forests and reducing anthropogenic emissions might be necessary to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in urban, tropical areas.
The Progressive Spread of the Vascular Wilt Like Pathogen of Detected in Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar
Wright PC, Jimenez BO, Rakotonirina P, Andriananoely DH, Shea A, Ratalata B and Razafimahaimodison JC
Pathogens are threatening crops worldwide, but little attention has been given to the threat to tree species in undisturbed rainforest. This communication reports the first case of a tree die off caused by a "wilt" in Madagascar. In 2016 while monitoring monthly tree phenology of Ranomafana National Park (RNP), the Centre ValBio research station observed that many adult trees had brown wilted leaves. There are three species of in this rainforest, , , and , and all three have contracted this pathogen. Our goal was to document the spead of this suspected wilt in trees and determine if site, elevation and DBH had an influence on tree mortality. In 2019 we conducted an inventory of all trees in RNP and 42% of the observed trees were dead. The species with the highest mortality was , with 53% of trees dead, followed by with 18%, and with only 2% of surveyed trees dead. Bark beetle traces were observed in all dead trees. Tree death caused by this suspected fungal pathogen has spread across a major river in the area and has been found at mid and high elevations. Our results show that trees with a larger DBH have a higher mortality risk. Our report highlights the importance of fighting invasive pathogens that threaten protected ecosystems.
Redefining "abandoned" agricultural land in the context of reforestation
Holl KD, Ashton MS, Bukoski JJ, Culbertson KA, Curran SR, Harris TB, Potts MD, Valverde YL and Vincent JR
Global mapping efforts to date have relied on vague and oversimplified definitions of "abandoned" agricultural land which results in overestimates of the land area that is likely to support persistent increases in forest cover and associated carbon sequestration. We propose a new conceptualization of abandoned agricultural land that incorporates changes in landholding status over time into determining whether land should be considered as abandoned. In order to develop more realistic estimates of the amount of land available for reforestation, we recommend clearly defining how abandoned land is categorized, discerning who owns and has rights to use the land, and combining remotely sensed data with household/stakeholder surveys to understand landowner motivations for not cropping or grazing land.