From floods to cyclones: Family structure and fertility preferences across climate-exposed regions of Bangladesh
Bangladesh experiences frequent extreme weather events (EWEs) that are associated with various dimensions of human life, including fertility preferences. This study examines associations among EWEs, family structure (nuclear vs. joint families), and fertility preferences in two climatically distinct regions of Bangladesh. The research was conducted in Chattogram district (cyclone-exposed) and Sunamganj district (flood-exposed), with two villages selected from each district based on high vulnerability to their respective EWEs. Data were collected through structured questionnaires administered to 414 married women of reproductive age (15-49 years) with at least one child, supplemented by 17 in-depth interviews exploring underlying motivations and experiences. Results show significant differences in fertility preferences between nuclear and joint family structures across both climate-vulnerable areas. Women in nuclear families expressed higher fertility preferences compared to those in joint families, with this pattern more pronounced in flood-exposed area (Sunamganj) than cyclone-exposed area (Chattogram). Qualitative findings indicate that family structure shows relationships with adaptive strategies for EWEs. Multiple factors appeared linked to fertility preferences across different family types, including perceived advantages of larger families for disaster coping, intergenerational support systems, spatial constraints, availability of adult male members, contraceptive use, and access to government/NGO assistance. These findings suggest that family structure represents an important but underexplored variable in understanding climate-fertility associations in vulnerable regions.
Season of birth in Puerto Rico: Rethinking changes in patterns using 90 years of births occurring under US occupation
This article examines birth seasonality in Puerto Rico and explores whether patterns shift during periods of economic transformation. We compiled monthly birth counts for approximately 5.64 million births occurring from 1935 to 2024. Data sources include reports to U.S. agencies (1935-1966), a prior publication (1967-1971), and the Puerto Rico Vital Statistics System (1972-2024). To assess the temporal concentration, we calculated a seasonal index of births and modeled 5-year patterns with LOESS curves. We identified four distinct seasonal patterns. From 1943 to 1949, births peaked in April - May. Between 1950 and 1954, this peak declined as a new one emerged from August to October. Beginning in 1955, a third pattern appeared, with fewer births early in the year and a peak in the second half. This pattern remained stable until about 2010. After 2010, we observe (1) a narrowing of early-year minimums, (2) increased within-period variability, and (3) a decline in December, though (4) the August to November peak persists. These changes align with economic transitions that occurred under US occupation, bringing forth the need to reexamine the hypothesis of cultural or media influence in future studies. Given observed patterns, future research should explore the role that economic shifts may have in shaping birth seasonality in Puerto Rico.
Research on the influencing factors and mechanism of regional death pattern in China based on functional neural network method
The variation in age-specific death probability is closely linked to demographic, socioeconomic, and geographical factors. The present study employs a functional neural network regression model to examine the influence of these factors on regional death patterns in China, with a specific focus on individuals aged 40 and above, from a nonlinear perspective. In comparison with conventional linear models, this approach is shown to more effectively capture the intricate relationships present in death patterns, thereby enhancing both the predictive performance and the interpretability of the results. Key findings include: (1) Fifteen key factors influencing regional death patterns are identified, with gender and urban-rural status emerging as the most significant. (2) Educational level has a significant impact on death probability in the 40-44 age group. After the age of 45, probabilities are increasingly affected by climate and economic conditions, while healthcare becomes crucial for those aged 60 and above. (3) Some factors exert different levels of influence on death probability across age groups. (4) Interactions between factors, particularly between urban-rural status and other factors, affect model outputs.
Characteristics of adherence to the Mediterranean diet and its relationship with deprivation in patients with cardiovascular-related conditions
Despite preventing cardiovascular events, adherence to the Mediterranean Diet (MedDiet) is declining globally. This study assessed adherence to the MedDiet and its association with material, social, and health-related deprivation among patients with cardiovascular conditions. Data from 328 patients in a southern Turkish city between December 2022 and August 2023 were collected using a Personal Information Form, the Mediterranean Diet Adherence Scale, and the Deprivation Questionnaire, and analyzed using logistic regression and decision tree analysis. Participants' mean age was 64.0 ± 10.2 years, and 50.6% were women. The mean MedDiet adherence score was 6.37 ± 2.54 (range: 1-12). Longer disease duration was associated with higher adherence in stroke, heart failure, and coronary artery disease, but not hypertension. Male gender (OR = 3.556, 95% CI 2.107-6.000) increased the odds of low MedDiet adherence, whereas older age (OR = 0.957, 95% CI 0.933-0.982) and active effort to follow the diet (OR = 0.538, 95% CI 0.405-0.714) decreased the odds. Decision tree analysis highlighted deprivation as a key factor, with gender and rural residence contributing to disparities. Overall, adherence remains suboptimal, particularly for fish, nuts, and olive oil. Deprived individuals, especially men and rural women, need targeted interventions and policies support for dietary access and secondary prevention.
Identifying the effects of large catastrophic shocks on the distribution of births using a combination of Benford's law and the Vector Error Correction Model(VECM)
This study examines the case of Romanian births, jointly distributed by age groups of mother and father, covering the period 1958-2022, under the potential influence of significant disruptors. Demographic shocks like armed conflicts, epidemics, floods, or slave trade are already present in the literature. Therefore, our study searches for the effects of World War II, the 1966 Anti-abortion Decree and COVID-19 shocks on birth distribution. Other legislative and political changes are not marginalized. Applying First Digit Law of Benford we search for anomalies in birth data. Then, following a vector-autoregressive method, we search for a long-term relation between fertility rate and anomaly in birth distribution. We also try to link disruptors and their potential effects as well. We found a statistically significant long term relation between fertility rate and birth distribution by age of parents. We confirm World War II as a major shock, and our results suggest adding the 1966 Anti-abortion Decree to the list of catastrophic events. The current work also reveals a time lag of 15 years between shock and its effects and a persistence of 15 to 20 years. COVID-19 does not impact (yet) the birth distribution by age of parents.
The disruption of Demographic and Health Surveys will hide the devastating impact of the Global Gag Rule
Black-White disparities in viral susceptibility to the common cold: The role of depressive affect
Evidence shows that there are marked Black-White health disparities in immune function that exist independent of socioeconomic status. Notably, most studies cannot differentiate between viral exposure and viral susceptibility. We overcome this problem with an experimental design and assess racial differences in cold symptom severity and the potential mediating role of depressive-type negative trait affect. We use data from the Pittsburg Cold Study 3, a viral challenge study where healthy participants ( = 200) were all inoculated with a cold virus. We test two hypotheses concerning race, depressive affect, and cold symptom severity using multivariable ordinary least squares regression and a Monte Carlo method for assessing mediation. While there was no significant difference in objective signs of upper respiratory pathology, findings indicate that Black participants reported less severe cold symptoms compared to White participants ( < 0.05). Depressive affect mediated this relationship: Black participants generally reported lower levels of depressive affect than White participants, which in turn was associated with lower perceived severity of their cold symptoms. We found evidence for racial differences in cold symptom severity in ways consistent with the Black-White Mental Health Paradox.
Happiness in the sky: The effect of sunshine exposure on subjective well-being
Compared to other environmental stressors, the impact of sun exposure on subjective well-being (SWB) remains inconclusive. This study investigates the effect of sunlight exposure on various SWB measures by matching a nationwide longitudinal survey in China with precise sunshine duration data based on the exact time and location of each interview. Exploiting variations in sunshine exposure experienced by the same individuals over 8 years, we find a positive relationship between sunshine duration on the interview day and life satisfaction, as well as a nonlinear relationship between past-week sunshine duration and depressive symptoms. Although sunshine has a significant effect on SWB, its overall magnitude is relatively small.
Reasons for the continued decline in fertility intentions: explanations from overtime work
China's fertility rate continues to decline despite government fertility policies. This study aims to explore the micro-level causes of China's declining fertility rate by examining the impact of changes in Chinese work patterns in recent years, particularly the prevalence of overtime work, on fertility intentions. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study examines the impact of overtime work on fertility intentions at both the provincial and urban levels. It also examines the specific mechanisms through which different types of overtime (e.g. weekend overtime, night shifts, on-call duty) affect fertility intentions. The results show that overtime work significantly inhibits fertility intentions, a trend that is consistent at both provincial and urban levels. Weekend overtime, night shifts, and on-call duties exhibit particularly pronounced inhibitory effects on fertility intentions. However, not all work arrangements negatively impact fertility intentions. Reasonable work schedules may even foster them. The research implies the need for policy measures to mitigate the negative effects of overtime work on fertility intentions.
The association of telomere length and religiosity: A systematic review
Religiosity is a complex construct comprised observance, intrinsic beliefs, meditative practice, and communal elements. Religiosity has been associated with reduced mortality and improved overall health, but understanding the underlying biological associations is evolving. As increased telomere length has been associated with increased longevity, this project presents a systematic review of studies investigating the relationship between religiosity and telomere length.
The impact of husband's work disability on wife's employment decisions in rural China
Work disability has become a global public health problem and places a considerable burden on individuals and families. This paper uses data from the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey to investigate the impact of husband's work disability on wife's employment decisions in rural areas of China. Estimation results do not indicate a disability-related added worker effect but show a significant caregiver effect; wives of disabled husbands experience a reduction in the likelihood of employment participation. Results also show that a husband's work disability leads to a lower likelihood that the wife will engage in self-employment rather than wage employment. This may be because the flexibility of self-employment helps women to adjust their labor patterns to care for disabled husbands. The mechanism analysis demonstrates that the disability of husbands does lead to a greater likelihood that the wife will provide more care to the family while at the same time, increasing the household health expenditure.
Analysis of fertility policy differences based on policy continuity and policy effectiveness in China
Fertility policy directly affects the fertility decisions of residents' families, and has the greatest impact on the daily lives of China's residents and on the country's economic and social development. In recent years, as the demographic situation has changed, China's fertility policy has undergone a series of adjustments, and the government has implemented different incentives in the legal system, child care, education, and maternity insurance to stimulate fertility intention. This is a major shift in China's fertility policy from "family planning" to "fertility support." In the process of policy adjustment, a series of problems emerged. First, the continuous adjustment of the fertility policy causes information gaps among departments at different levels, thus leading to coordination difficulties and a lack of responsibility between the upper and lower levels of policy implementation. Second, the implementation of the two-child policy is ineffective, and its incentive effect fails to meet the expected standard. Therefore, this paper explores the similarities and policy effectiveness of fertility policies and uses the LDA thematic clustering model, cosine similarity distance algorithm, and PMC index evaluation system to quantitatively analyze fertility policies in different periods. The results are as follows: (1) due to changes in China's demographic structure, China's fertility policy has adjusted significantly during the universal two-child period, and its policy content and specific measures have changed dramatically compared with those of the previous period, while China's fertility policy has stabilized during the universal three-child period. (2) In the policy effectiveness evaluation, most policies have undetailed long-, medium-, and short-term goals and lack adequate policy guarantees. Therefore, to build a perfect fertility support system, the government needs to comprehensively consider the synergy of policy measures, the strengthening of policy guarantee programs, and the enhancement of policy effectiveness in the formulation of relevant policies, to continuously make policies more targeted, scientific, and effective.
Fast and slow aging in Brazil: An analysis of inequalities in population dynamics across social groups
To analyze the inequalities of population aging in Brazil by a new measure - relative age combined with characteristics approach.
Status, despair, and epigenetic age acceleration: Chains of risk?
Biological age acceleration predicts multiple "diseases of aging." Objective and subjective social statuses have both been prospectively linked to this outcome. An established chain-of-risk framework suggests that "effects" of each may be mediated by one's subsequent structural position. A separate deaths-of-despair literature identifies a person's sense of futility as another potential link. Such chains remain underexplored. The current study used data from three waves (2008-2016) of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to fill these gaps. The analysis was done through a counterfactual regression-with-residuals (RWR) approach. Asimulated decline in a person's objective but not subjective status predicted their age acceleration 8 years later. Contrary to chain-of-risk conceptions, intermediate social standing did not channel effects. Neither did despair. Findings were more consistent with a direct "material shocks" explanation for status-aging linkages than an indirect or psychosocial one. Implications for aging theory and for interventions are discussed.
The associations of cash transfers with parental investment and couples' fertility among low-income Serbian Roma
Welfare incentives, by providing parents access to certain resources, may increase the reliability of parental investment returns and thus increase opportunities to invest in offspring quality vs. quantity and eventually a drop in fertility. Using the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 6 for Serbian Roma, this study examined whether improvements in resources, driven by cash transfers, encouraged parental greater engagement per child and a drop in fertility. The sample included 1095 Roma couples whereas a couple's number of biological children by number of years married was used as a proxy for fertility. The results imply that Roma parental response to shifts in environmental risk did not result in more parental time and lower birth rate: parental investment was lower in the welfare households, presently associated with a higher birth rate. Roma paternal investment dropped in the presence of stepchildren and rose in the presence of biological children, allowing mothers to divert their attention to reproduction. Cash transfers may compensate for the additional costs of an extra child and maintain fertility. Despite the amounts received, or the assumed improvements brought about, the changes may have not be perceived as sufficient enough to cause a shift in parental behavior and a drop in fertility.
Sex-specific trends in educational attainment and self-rated health, 1972-2018
This study examines sex-specific trends in self-rated health and educational attainment in the United States. We also consider how educational improvements shape trends in self-rated health and whether these associations differ by sex. We draw on 1972-2018 General Social Survey data to extend past research through the recent period when American population health has stalled or declined. Our results show that educational attainment increased throughout the nearly 50-year period, whereas trends in self-rated health were non-linear among both men and women. Among women, self-rated health and education increased together from 1972 to around 2000, but self-rated health declined thereafter even as educational attainment continued to rise. Among men, the association between education and self-rated health was less stable than among women. Education increased, but self-rated health fluctuated over time without a clear trend until the early 2000s. Thereafter, men's self-rated health trended downward. Our findings contribute to a growing body of research showing declines in health status among Americans over recent decades.
Rethinking fertility through Marx: Alienation and demographic change
Inter-cohort shifts in chronic disease, dementia, and mortality
Previous work using U.S. data has identified generational shifts, reflected in inter-cohort changes, in the incidence and prevalence of diseases in older ages. This study extends previous findings to England by examining similar results in memory complaints, heart conditions, stroke, diabetes, lung disease, and cancer using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). We fit Cox proportional hazard models to the first eight waves (2002-2016) of the ELSA sample ( = 18,528). In addition to exploring shifts in disease incidence we also examine shifts in disease mortality. Both general and sex-related differences are examined. Disease incidence has increased for later-born cohorts in England, replicating similar trends in the U.S. Not all diseases showed differences between men and women, but when differences were identified, women had lower risks for disease. In comparison to the U.S. sample, disease trends in England are more negative (i.e. accelerated failure times) for more recently born cohorts. These results showing increasing incidence of disease among the later-born cohorts suggest the possibility of increased disease burden in coming years.
The demographic transition as a consequence of alienation in the industrial societies
Demography leads to more conservative European societies
Using the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (a total of 66,188 participants from 15 European countries) and the European Gender and Generation Survey (a total of 121,248 participants from 12 countries), we investigated i) whether differences in political attitudes and attitudes toward family values (i.e. attitudes toward homosexual couples, attitudes toward female reproduction) are associated with differences in the average number of children, and ii) whether such an association between fertility and attitudes affects the population share of these attitudes in subsequent generations. We found that in most of the countries analyzed, right-wing (conservative) individuals have, on average, more children and grandchildren than left-wing (liberal) individuals. We also found that the proportion of right-wing individuals increases from generation to generation. Since political attitudes are presumably evolved traits that are socially and genetically transmitted from one generation to the next, these findings may suggest that demographic differences can lead to shifts in prevailing political attitudes. Thus, to some extent, demography may explain longer-term political trends.
Tracking of factors affecting Chinese women's fertility intentions from childhood to adulthood: Under birth-control policy shift
China experienced a rapid fertility decline in recent decades. Fertility intention as a strong predictor of actual behavior has attracted much attention. Yet, there is not much literature to analyze Chinese women's fertility intention from a life-course framework. This study attempts to shed light on the relationship between the formation of women's fertility concepts and their growth trajectory and highlights the policy effect on fertility intentions during the policy-shift process. Using data from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (CLDS) collected in 2014, 2016 and 2018, I tracked those factors affecting Chinese childbearing-age women's fertility intentions. The changes in women's intentions for a second child and for the ideal number of children were estimated by logistic regressions respectively, and propensity score matching (PSM) was used to test the robustness of results. Adult women's fertility intentions were associated with their childhood family background, and the sibsize effect on their fertility intentions was found to be significantly positive. Compared with socio-economic characteristics, the influence of their self-rated health (SRH) and subjective well-being (SWB) on fertility intention was more prominent. The policy effect on the changes in women's fertility intentions was confirmed. The intergenerational preference from parents to their daughters, or/and the intimate relationship among siblings may contribute to women's intentions for more children.
